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Demystifying Spectral Feature Learning for Instrumental Variable Regression

NeurIPS 2025 · Probabilistic and scientific modeling › Treatment effects · approach: Instrumental variable estimation · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Derives a generalization bound for sieve 2SLS with spectral features for nonparametric IV, proves the contrastive spectral loss of prior work equals a Hilbert-Schmidt low-rank approximation of the conditional expectation operator, and gives a good/bad/ugly taxonomy validated on synthetic and dSprites experiments.

Problem

Causal effect estimation with hidden confounders via nonparametric instrumental variable regression, where learned spectral features are used in two-stage least squares; the paper asks when and why this works and when it fails.

Approach

Shows that spectral features minimize the sieve measure of ill-posedness, derives a generalization bound decomposed into spectral alignment (approximation error) and ill-posedness (singular value decay), proves the spectral contrastive loss is equivalent to a Hilbert-Schmidt rank-d approximation of the conditional expectation operator, and defines a good/bad/ugly taxonomy.

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use slower singular-value decaySieve 2SLS with oracle spectral features · Synthetic NPIVMSEHelped
Improve alignment of the structural function with the leading singular functionsSieve 2SLS with oracle spectral features · Synthetic NPIVMSEHelped
Use slower singular-value decaySieve 2SLS with learned spectral features · Synthetic NPIVMSEHelped
Improve alignment of the structural function with the leading singular functionsSieve 2SLS with learned spectral features · Synthetic NPIVMSEHelped
Use learned rather than oracle spectral featuresSieve 2SLS · Synthetic NPIVMSEHurt
Concentrate the structural function on the top singular functions when singular-value decay is fastSieve 2SLS with learned spectral features · Synthetic NPIVMSEHelped
Place the structural function orthogonal to the singular functions of the operatorSpectral methods · Synthetic NPIV, misaligned regimerecoveryHurt

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: dSprites synthetic NPIV data

Benchmarks: synthetic NPIV settings dSprites

Metrics: mean squared error

Baselines: end-to-end 2SLS feature learning saddle-point IV estimator fixed-basis sieve 2SLS

Builds on: spectral contrastive learning sieve 2SLS Eckart-Young-Mirsky theorem

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