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Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Regression through Stochastic Approximate Gradients

NeurIPS 2024 · Optimization › Optimizers · approach: Randomized gradient estimation · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Proposes SAGD-IV, a functional stochastic gradient descent method that minimizes the populational NPIV risk using a density-ratio-based approximate gradient, with excess-risk bounds and support for non-quadratic losses such as binary outcomes.

Problem

Nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) regression, an ill-posed inverse problem, where existing methods minimize empirical risks or moment-based minimax objectives and struggle with stability and with binary outcomes.

Approach

Derives an analytical functional gradient of the populational projected risk, replaces the adjoint conditional expectation operator with an estimated density ratio Phi(x,z) so that only Z samples are needed in the inner loop, and runs projected SGD in function space; the loss can be any convex, smooth loss (e.g., binary cross-entropy with a known logistic error CDF).

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use SAGD-IV instead of linear 2SLSContinuous NPIV regression · Continuous response: step, absolute, and sinelog MSEHelped
Use 2SLS instead of nonlinear methodsContinuous NPIV regression · Continuous response: linearlog MSEHelped
Use KIV as a competitor to SAGD-IVContinuous NPIV regression · Continuous response: step and sinelog MSEMixed
Use KIV instead of SAGD-IVContinuous NPIV regression · Continuous response: absolutelog MSEHurt
Use Deep SAGD-IV instead of the other neural-network-based algorithmsContinuous NPIV regression · Continuous responselog MSEHelped
Use Kernel SAGD-IV among kernel methodsContinuous NPIV regression · Continuous responsevariance across scenariosHelped
Use DualIV among kernel methodsContinuous NPIV regression · Continuous responsevariance across scenariosHurt
Use Kernel SAGD-IV instead of Deep SAGD-IVBinary NPIV regression · Binary response: linear and sinelog MSEHelped
Use Deep SAGD-IV instead of Kernel SAGD-IVBinary NPIV regression · Binary responselog MSEHurt

Surprising findings

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: synthetic NPIV data generating process (continuous and binary response)

Benchmarks: synthetic NPIV DGP with step, abs, linear, sin response functions synthetic binary-response NPIV DGP (sin and linear)

Metrics: log mean squared error variance across realizations

Baselines: KIV DualIV DeepGMM DeepIV 2SLS

Builds on: KIV DeepIV DeepGMM DualIV

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