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STITCH-OPE: Trajectory Stitching with Guided Diffusion for Off-Policy Evaluation

NeurIPS 2025 · Reinforcement learning › Policy gradient and actor-critic · approach: Confidence intervals and OPE benchmarks · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Proposes STITCH-OPE, a guided conditional diffusion framework that generates sub-trajectories stitched end-to-end from the target policy, using a negative behavior-policy guidance term, for long-horizon off-policy evaluation.

Problem

Off-policy evaluation in high-dimensional, long-horizon continuous control where importance sampling suffers exponential variance and learned autoregressive models compound errors.

Approach

Train a state-conditioned diffusion model on short sub-trajectories from behavior data, then guide denoising with the target policy score minus a behavior policy score (negative behavior guidance) and stitch sub-trajectories end-to-end, giving an exponential variance reduction in window length rather than full horizon.

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use STITCH-OPE instead of competing OPE baselinesOPE on standard benchmark environments · Hopper, Walker2d, HalfCheetah, Pendulum, AcrobotLog RMSEMixed
Use STITCH-OPE instead of competing OPE baselinesOPE on standard benchmark environments · Hopper, Walker2d, HalfCheetah, Pendulum, AcrobotRank Corr.Mixed
Use STITCH-OPE instead of competing OPE baselinesOPE on standard benchmark environments · Hopper, Walker2d, HalfCheetah, Pendulum, AcrobotRegret@1Mixed
Use STITCH-OPE for diffusion target policies instead of baselinesOPE with diffusion policies · D4RLLog RMSEMixed
Use STITCH-OPE across increasing evaluation horizonsHopper-medium · Hopper-medium, T=128–1000Log RMSE: -2.23 ± 0.00 -> -4.34 ± 0.01 (T=128); -1.36 ± 0.00 -> -3.19 ± 0.00 (T=256); -0.99 ± 0.00 -> -2.65 ± 0.01 (T=512); -0.81 Helped
Add negative behavior-policy guidance to target-policy guidance (ablation)STITCH-OPE · GaussianWorld distribution shiftvalue estimation biasHelped
Use conditional sub-trajectory diffusion and stitching instead of full-length trajectory diffusion (ablation)STITCH-OPE · GaussianWorld trajectory composition and state generalizationtrajectory generation qualityHelped
Choose 0 < λ < α for guidance coefficients (ablation)STITCH-OPE · OPE benchmarksperformanceHelped
Set window size w=8 (ablation)STITCH-OPE · OPE benchmarksperformanceHelped
Use STITCH-OPE rather than baselines across Hopper-medium-expert and Hopper-expert datasets (ablation)OPE · Hopper-medium-expert and Hopper-expertperformanceHelped
Use estimated reward instead of the true reward function (ablation)STITCH-OPE · Hopper-mediumaggregate OPE performanceNo clear effect
Increase evaluation horizon T (ablation)STITCH-OPE · Hopper-mediumLog RMSE: -4.34 ± 0.01 -> -1.61 ± 0.02Hurt

Surprising findings

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: D4RL halfcheetah-medium D4RL hopper-medium D4RL walker2d-medium OpenAI Gym Pendulum OpenAI Gym Acrobot D4RL hopper-medium-expert D4RL hopper-expert

Benchmarks: D4RL OpenAI Gym Pendulum OpenAI Gym Acrobot

Metrics: Log RMSE Spearman rank correlation Regret@1

Baselines: FQE DR IS DRE MB PGD DWM

Builds on: Policy-Guided Diffusion classifier guidance for diffusion denoising diffusion probabilistic models direct method OPE

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