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Preference Learning of Latent Decision Utilities with a Human-like Model of Preferential Choice
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Builds a tractable neural surrogate (CRCS, and LC-CRCS with cross-feature linear context) of a computationally rational context-dependent choice model to improve preference learning from human choices.
Problem
Preference learning relies on Bradley-Terry-style choice models that ignore context effects in human choice; the cognitive models that capture these effects are intractable for inference.
Approach
Replace intractable computations of a computationally rational choice model (Howes et al.) with neural surrogates trained to predict expected utilities and choice probabilities, generalize it to a space of utility functions, and add a linear cross-feature context mechanism from LCL (LC-CRCS).
Key results
- LC-CRCS achieves the lowest summed NLL on Hotels, District-Smart and Dumbalska versus Bradley-Terry, Bower & Balzano and LCL (p<0.01), while LCL is best on Car-Alt.
- On District-Smart rank consistency (Kendall's tau), CRCS reaches 0.622 and LC-CRCS 0.525 versus 0.286 for LCL and 0.162 for Bradley-Terry.
- In Dumbalska elicitation, CRCS variants make significantly better expected-likelihood predictions than baselines at nearly all time steps with few queries.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use CRCS instead of Bradley-Terry | Human choice prediction · Hotels | NLL: 573 -> 536 | Helped |
| Add LCL-style cross-feature context effects to CRCS (ablation) | CRCS · Hotels | NLL: 536 -> 536 | No clear effect |
| Use LC-CRCS instead of LCL | Human choice prediction · District-Smart | NLL: 3305 -> 3276 | Helped |
| Add LCL-style cross-feature context effects to CRCS (ablation) | CRCS · District-Smart | NLL: 3371 -> 3276 | Helped |
| Use CRCS instead of LCL | Human choice prediction · Car-Alt | NLL: 7290 -> 7322 | Hurt |
| Add LCL-style cross-feature context effects to CRCS (ablation) | CRCS · Car-Alt | NLL: 7322 -> 7345 | Hurt |
| Use LC-CRCS instead of Bradley-Terry | Human choice prediction · Dumbalska | NLL: 103669 -> 99147 | Helped |
| Add LCL-style cross-feature context effects to CRCS (ablation) | CRCS · Dumbalska | NLL: 100450 -> 99147 | Helped |
| Use CRCS instead of Bradley-Terry | District-Smart utility inference · District-Smart | Kendall's τ rank consistency: 0.162 -> 0.622 | Helped |
| Add LCL-style cross-feature context effects to CRCS (ablation) | CRCS · District-Smart | Kendall's τ rank consistency: 0.622 -> 0.525 | Hurt |
| Use CRCS instead of the original Howes et al. model for utility ranking | Risky choice prediction · Risky choice task | utility ranking agreement: 92.277% ± 0.165% | Helped |
Surprising findings
- On Car-Alt, the CRCS model performs worse than LCL, attributed to insufficient choice sets for training the surrogate.
- Without regularization, rankings implied by LCL, CRCS and LC-CRCS were inconsistent with collected human rankings (tau of -0.36, -0.17, -0.04).
Limitations
- Surrogates require sufficiently many choice sets or a well-specified task to generate training option sets; poor performance on Car-Alt.
- CRCS and LC-CRCS only support fixed-size choice sets.
- Non-convex likelihood requires repeated inference from multiple starting points.
Experimental setup
Datasets: Hotels District-Smart Car-Alt Dumbalska Journal of Medicinal Chemistry synthetic routes (47,055)
Benchmarks: Hotels District-Smart Car-Alt Dumbalska Crash structure design Water drainage network design Retrosynthesis planning
Metrics: negative log-likelihood Kendall's tau expected likelihood recommendation regret inference error maximum true utility
Baselines: Bradley-Terry Bower & Balzano Linear Context Logit (LCL) Aizynthfinder
Builds on: Howes et al. computationally rational choice model Linear Context Logit (LCL) Bradley-Terry Bower & Balzano model
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