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FinCon: A Synthesized LLM Multi-Agent System with Conceptual Verbal Reinforcement for Enhanced Financial Decision Making

NeurIPS 2024 · Multi-agent systems and games › LLM agents · approach: Agent data synthesis and behavior studies · 37 citations (OpenAlex)

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Proposes FinCon, a GPT-4-Turbo-driven multi-agent framework with a manager-analyst hierarchy, CVaR-based within-episode risk control, and conceptual verbal reinforcement across episodes, evaluated on single-stock trading and portfolio management.

Problem

Sequential financial investment decision-making (single stock trading and portfolio management) under volatile markets, where existing LLM agent systems lack risk control, multi-asset support, and efficient communication/optimization.

Approach

A synthesized manager-analyst hierarchy in which specialized analyst agents process uni-modal data sources and a manager makes decisions, combined with a dual-level risk control: CVaR-triggered within-episode risk alerts and over-episode conceptual verbal reinforcement that updates investment beliefs via textual gradient descent, selectively propagated to relevant agents.

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
add within-episode CVaR risk control (ablation)FinCon · GOOGCR %: -1.461 -> 25.077Helped
add within-episode CVaR risk control (ablation)FinCon · NIOCR %: -52.887 -> 17.461Helped
add within-episode CVaR risk control (ablation)FinCon · Portfolio management (TSLA, MSFT, PFE)CR %: 14.699 -> 113.836Helped
add over-episode belief updates (CVRF) (ablation)FinCon · GOOGCR %: -11.944 -> 25.077Helped
add over-episode belief updates (CVRF) (ablation)FinCon · NIOCR %: 8.197 -> 17.461Helped
add over-episode belief updates (CVRF) (ablation)FinCon · Portfolio management (TSLA, MSFT, PFE)CR %: 28.432 -> 113.836Helped
add over-episode belief updates (CVRF) (ablation)FinCon · GOOGSR: -0.496 -> 1.052Helped
add over-episode belief updates (CVRF) (ablation)FinCon · NIOSR: 0.156 -> 0.335Helped
add over-episode belief updates (CVRF) (ablation)FinCon · Portfolio management (TSLA, MSFT, PFE)SR: 1.181 -> 3.269Helped

Surprising findings

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: Yahoo Finance stock prices Refinitiv news SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings Zacks analyst reports earnings conference call audio

Benchmarks: single stock trading (TSLA, AMZN, NIO, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, NFLX, COIN) portfolio management (TSLA/MSFT/PFE, AMZN/GM/LLY)

Metrics: Cumulative Return Sharpe Ratio Max Drawdown

Baselines: A2C PPO DQN Generative Agents FinGPT FinMem FinAgent Markowitz MV FinRL-A2C

Builds on: FinMem FinAgent Generative Agents Reflexion TextGrad

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