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Logistic Regression for Massive Data with Rare Events

ICML 2020 · Learning theory and algorithms › Sample complexity · approach: Optimal mean estimation and subsampling · 11 citations (OpenAlex)

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Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Measure estimation error relative to the number of cases rather than total sample sizeFull-data logistic-regression MLE · Rare-events dataAsymptotic convergence rate: n_1^{-1/2} instead of n^{-1/2}Helped
Under-sample controls while retaining all cases, with the number of sampled controls much larger than the number of casesFull-data logistic-regression MLE · Rare-events dataAsymptotic estimation efficiencyNo clear effect
Under-sample controls until their number is of the same order as casesFull-data logistic-regression MLE · Rare-events dataAsymptotic estimation efficiencyHurt
Use an unweighted objective with intercept bias correction instead of a weighted objective on the same under-sampled dataUnder-sampled logistic regression · Rare-events dataAsymptotic estimation efficiencyHelped
Replicate cases while retaining all controls, using the weighted estimatorFull-data logistic-regression MLE · Rare-events dataAsymptotic estimation efficiencyHurt
Use an unweighted objective with bias correction instead of a weighted objective for case over-samplingOver-sampled logistic regression · Rare-events dataAsymptotic estimation efficiencyHurt
Scale empirical MSE by expected case count rather than total sample sizeFull-data logistic-regression MLE · Full-data simulationScaled empirical MSE: 2.51, 2.06, 2.22, 2.16 (alpha); 1.21, 1.09, 1.00, 1.08 (beta)No clear effect
Scale empirical MSE by total sample size rather than expected case countFull-data logistic-regression MLE · Full-data simulationScaled empirical MSE: 125.7, 515.5, 2774.4, 13474.9 (alpha); 60.6, 271.9, 1248.8, 6731.6 (beta)Hurt
Under-sample controls so their number is roughly equal to the number of casesUnder-sampled estimators · Simulation with n=10^5 and Pr(y=1)≈0.004Empirical MSEHurt
Increase the control sampling probability above 0.1Under-sampled estimators · Simulation with n=10^5 and Pr(y=1)≈0.004Empirical MSENo clear effect
Over-sample cases at an intermediate rateOver-sampled estimators · Simulation with n=10^5 and Pr(y=1)≈0.004Empirical MSEHurt

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