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Stochastically Dominant Peer Prediction

NeurIPS 2025 · Learning theory and algorithms › Submodular and game algorithms · approach: Matching markets and welfare · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Introduces SD-truthfulness for peer prediction (score distribution under truth-telling first-order stochastically dominates any deviation), shows rounding reductions enforce it, and proposes the enforced agreement mechanism, which is SD-truthful for binary self-predicting signals and has highest sensitivity among known SD-truthful mechanisms.

Problem

Classic peer prediction mechanisms guarantee truthfulness only for expected scores, which assumes agents have linear utility in score; non-linear payments and non-linear agent utilities break truthfulness, and existing mechanisms are not stochastically dominant truthful without strong assumptions.

Approach

Define SD-truthfulness (score distribution under truth-telling first-order stochastically dominates any deviation), so truth-telling is optimal for any increasing utility. Achieve it via direct and partition rounding of truthful mechanisms into binary lotteries, and propose enforced agreement, which forces a pre-set marginal distribution of reports before applying output agreement to retain high s

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
replace direct rounding with partition rounding (ablation)truthful bounded-score mechanisms · multi-task peer predictionsensitivity: exactly $\sqrt{K}$ timesHelped
apply direct rounding instead of retaining the original averaged scores (ablation)Output Agreement (OA) · multi-task peer predictionsensitivity: $\sqrt{n}$Hurt
enforce the signal prior (ablation)Enforced Agreement (EA) · J1, binary signalssensitivityHelped
use uniform enforcement rather than requiring prior knowledge (ablation)Enforced Agreement (EA) · J1, binary signalssensitivityHelped
use EA-uniform instead of PTS-partition-roundSD-truthful mechanisms · J1, binary signals with a biased priorsensitivityHelped
use PTS-partition-round when the signal prior is nearly uniformPeer Truth Serum (PTS) · binary signals with prior near 0.5sensitivityHelped
use EA rather than other SD-truthful mechanismsSD-truthful mechanisms · binary signals, except when the signal prior is nearly uniformsensitivityHelped
use CA-partition-round or MA-partition-round rather than higher-sensitivity alternativesCorrelated Agreement (CA) and Matching Agreement (MA) · general signal settingssensitivityHurt
pair an SD-truthful mechanism with threshold payments instead of using a truthful mechanism with linear paymentspeer prediction mechanisms · J1 effort elicitationbudgetary efficiencyHelped
use EA with signal-prior enforcementSD-truthful mechanisms with threshold payments · J1 effort elicitationtotal paymentHelped
use EA with a non-binary signal spaceEnforced Agreement (EA) · non-binary signalsstochastic-dominance truthfulnessHurt

Surprising findings

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: compound appropriateness crowdsourced labels (Dawid-Skene estimated information structure, J1) tweet sentiment annotations with 300 tweets, 4 signals (J2)

Benchmarks: sensitivity under varying prior and number of tasks on J1 and J2 budgetary efficiency under threshold and linear payments

Metrics: sensitivity total payment (budgetary efficiency)

Baselines: Output Agreement Peer Truth Serum Correlated Agreement Matching Agreement linear payment truthful mechanisms

Builds on: output agreement peer truth serum correlated agreement matching agreement

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