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NeurIPS should lead scientific consensus on AI policy
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Position paper arguing NeurIPS should actively catalyze scientific consensus formation on AI policy, using IPCC lessons to propose low-cost pilots (working group, dedicated track, debates and surveys).
Problem
Policymakers lack a reputable mechanism for forming expert scientific consensus on AI policy questions, a gap that evidence generation and synthesis mechanisms do not fill.
Approach
Proposes NeurIPS as the natural site for AI scientific consensus formation, modeled on the IPCC's legitimacy, credibility, and impact processes, and compares it against the International Scientific Report on AI, the AI summit series, and other conferences.
Key results
- Argues no bona fide mechanism currently exists for forming scientific consensus on AI policy, identifying a complete void in consensus formation.
- Argues NeurIPS Pareto-dominates other AI conferences and the AI summit series as a site for consensus formation on legitimacy and credibility grounds.
- Proposes three low-cost pilots for NeurIPS: a standing working group, a dedicated track, and debates with pre- and post-conference surveys.
Surprising findings
- Argues the AI summit series, despite high-level profile, will not work as a site for scientist-led consensus due to geopolitical entanglement.
Limitations
- Position paper with no empirical evaluation of proposed pilots.
- Relies on argument rather than data for claims about NeurIPS strengths and alternatives.
- Acknowledges industry entanglement and potential for external coercion in NeurIPS consensus process.
Experimental setup
Baselines: International Scientific Report on AI AI summit series FAccT ICML IASEAI
Builds on: IPCC assessment process International Scientific Report on AI
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