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Least squares variational inference
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Proposes LSVI, a gradient-free Monte Carlo fixed-point scheme for exponential-family variational inference that reduces each step to ordinary least squares on tempered log-target evaluations, with convergence rates and efficient Gaussian variants.
Problem
Variational inference with exponential-family approximations when gradients of the log-target are unavailable or the reparameterisation trick is impossible (discrete targets, non-differentiable or likelihood-free models); natural gradient methods need costly Fisher inversions.
Approach
The optimal exponential-family approximation solves a fixed-point equation that equals an ordinary least squares regression of log-target on sufficient statistics under the current approximation; a Monte Carlo, damped version of this iteration is shown equivalent to biased stochastic natural gradient / mirror descent, and for Gaussians the regression is reparameterised via Hermite-like statistics
Key results
- On Pima (full-covariance, d=9), LSVI converges essentially in one step and LSVI-FC in under 100 steps, performing comparably to NGD and GMMVI but less noisy.
- On MNIST (mean-field, d=784), the LSVI-MF variant runs in about 10-19 seconds (JAX, 500 iterations) versus about 25 seconds for mean-field NGD with the same sample count.
- For the variable selection task (d=92), LSVI gives a reasonable approximation of SMC posterior inclusion probabilities at about 61 seconds versus 291 seconds for SMC.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| use LSVI-FC rather than MCMC | Bayesian synthetic likelihood for toad displacement · BSL toad displacement | runtime (seconds): $72.9$ ($\pm 2.8$) vs $268.1$ ($\pm 3.4$) | Helped |
| use LSVI rather than SMC | variable selection · Concrete Compressive Strength variable selection | runtime (seconds): $60.8$ ($\pm 0.3$) vs $290.7$ ($\pm 1.7$) | Helped |
| use LSVI-MF rather than NGD-MF | Census logistic regression with subsampling · Census logistic regression, subsampling | runtime (seconds): $12.9$ ($\pm 0.2$) vs $70.0$ ($\pm 1.7$) | Helped |
Surprising findings
- Ordinary least squares on tempered log-target evaluations converges in essentially one step on Pima, faster than gradient-based NGD.
Limitations
- Restricted to exponential variational families; mixtures are not covered.
- Convergence guarantees rely on smoothness, relative strong convexity and bounded-moment assumptions, conditioned on high-probability events.
- Gaussian approximations may be poor when the posterior is strongly non-Gaussian.
Experimental setup
Datasets: Pima Sonar Census-Income MNIST (digits 0 vs 8) Concrete Compressive Strength toad displacement (synthetic)
Benchmarks: Pima logistic regression Sonar logistic regression MNIST logistic regression Census-Income logistic regression Concrete variable selection toad BSL
Metrics: KL divergence to posterior (up to constant) runtime memory usage misclassification rate posterior inclusion probabilities
Baselines: ADVI NGD GMMVI SMC sampler MCMC (random walk)
Builds on: natural gradient variational inference mirror descent GMMVI ADVI
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