Research map / Probabilistic and scientific modeling / Dynamical systems
Using Social Dynamics to Make Individual Predictions: Variational Inference with a Stochastic Kinetic Model
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Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Variational inference (VISKM) replacing Gibbs sampling and particle filtering for individual state inference | Social Evolution epidemic data · Social Evolution prediction/smoothing/expansion | area under ROC curve | Helped |
| Variational inference (VISKM) replacing sampling methods | Social Evolution epidemic data · Running time, 60 people | running time (s): 0.78 s vs 601 s (PF_1000) and 7820 s (Gibbs_10000) | Helped |
| Increasing number of tracked individuals with VISKM | VISKM runtime · Social Evolution, 15/30/60 people | running time (s) | No clear effect |
| Increasing samples/particles for Gibbs and PF | Gibbs sampling and particle filtering · Social Evolution | area under ROC curve | Helped |
| Variational inference (VISKM) replacing sampling for collective statistics | Social Evolution (20% of data) and Dartmouth (10%) · Collective statistics estimation | estimation accuracy of infected counts | Helped |
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