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Learning Time-Varying Multi-Region Brain Communications via Scalable Markovian Gaussian Processes

ICML 2025 · Probabilistic and scientific modeling › Dynamical systems · approach: Functional connectivity modeling · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Proposes the Adaptive Delay Model (ADM), a Markovian Gaussian Process / state-space model with continuously time-varying inter-region temporal delays, fit with a parallel-scan Kalman EM for scalable analysis of multi-region spike trains.

Problem

Existing multi-region communication models either ignore temporal delays or assume static or discretely changing delays, and GP-based delay models scale poorly (O(T^3)) or sequentially (O(T)) for long recordings.

Approach

Establishes a universal connection between any temporally stationary GP kernel and a Markovian SSM (via regression-derived transition matrices), letting the MOSE kernel's delay parameter vary over time, and uses a parallel-scan Kalman EM for O(log T) time inference.

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with Exp kernel · GP regression, ExpReg-MSE / 10^-1: 5.7 ± 0.1 -> 5.9 ± 0.1Hurt
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with Matern 3/2 kernel · GP regression, Matern 3/2Reg-MSE / 10^-1: 5.9 ± 0.2 -> 6.2 ± 0.1Hurt
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with SE kernel · GP regression, SEReg-MSE / 10^-1: 3.1 ± 0.1 -> 3.3 ± 0.1Hurt
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with RQ kernel · GP regression, RQReg-MSE / 10^-1: 3.0 ± 0.1 -> 3.4 ± 0.1Hurt
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with SM kernel · GP regression, SMReg-MSE / 10^-1: 3.0 ± 0.2 -> 3.3 ± 0.2Hurt
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with MOSE kernel · GP regression, MOSEReg-MSE / 10^-1: 7.4 ± 0.02 -> 7.6 ± 0.04Hurt
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with MOSM kernel · GP regression, MOSMReg-MSE / 10^-1: 7.5 ± 0.02 -> 7.9 ± 0.08Hurt
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with CSM kernel · GP regression, CSMReg-MSE / 10^-1: 8.2 ± 0.05 -> 7.7 ± 0.09Helped
Approximate the GP with an SSMGP regression with LMC kernel · GP regression, LMCReg-MSE / 10^-1: 0.66 ± 0.02 -> 0.72 ± 0.02Hurt
Use P=1 instead of P≥2 (ablation)ADM · Synthetic Datatest log-likelihoodHurt
Vary SSM order P across 2–5 (ablation)ADM · Synthetic Datatest log-likelihoodNo clear effect
Vary SSM order P (ablation)ADM · Two Brain Regions (V1–V2)validation log-likelihoodMixed

Surprising findings

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: Synthetic data V1-V2 monkey spike trains (session 106r001p26) Allen Institute Visual Coding Neuropixels session 750749662

Benchmarks: V1-V2 spike trains Allen Neuropixels five-region spike trains synthetic delay recovery

Metrics: test log-likelihood validation log-likelihood runtime MSE and Pearson correlation of delays

Baselines: DLAG mDLAG MRM-GP mp-srSLDS

Builds on: DLAG mDLAG MRM-GP Markovian Gaussian Processes parallel scan Kalman filter and smoother

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