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Neural Pharmacodynamic State Space Modeling

ICML 2021 · Time series › Causal and generative time series · approach: State-space and latent dynamics forecasting · 4 citations (OpenAlex)

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Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use pharmacodynamic mechanism functions with attention over mechanismsSSM PK-PD · Synthetic, training size 100NELBO: 55.34 +/- .03 vs 58.57 +/- .06Helped
Use pharmacodynamic mechanism functions with attention over mechanismsSSM PK-PD · Synthetic, training size 1000NELBO: 39.84 +/- .02 vs 44.75 +/- .02Helped
Use pharmacodynamic mechanism functions with attention over mechanismsSSM PK-PD · ML-MMRFNELBO: 61.54 vs 73.44Helped
Replace Neural Treatment Exponential with another g1 instance (ablation)SSM PK-PD · Synthetic, training size 100NELBO: 55.34 +/- .03 -> 58.39 +/- .05No clear effect
Replace Neural Treatment Exponential with another g1 instance (ablation)SSM PK-PD · Synthetic, training size 1000NELBO: 39.84 +/- .02 -> 38.93 +/- .01Helped
Remove the local clock (ablation)SSM PK-PD · Synthetictreatment-response dynamicsHurt
Replace mechanism functions with learned MLP expertsSSM MOE · ML-MMRFNELBO: 61.54 vs 73.44Hurt
Increase SSM Linear model size to match SSM PK-PDSSM Linear · ML-MMRFheld-out likelihoodNo clear effect

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