Research map / Probabilistic and scientific modeling / Uncertainty and Gaussian processes
Influenza Forecasting Framework based on Gaussian Processes
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Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| GP-based framework replacing benchmarks for probabilistic forecasting | seasonal influenza forecasting · CDC ILI retrospective forecasts 2012/13-2018/19 | log-score: up to 90% relative log-score gain over Hist; 20%-40% over LinEns | Helped |
| GP-based framework vs Epideep/MSS etc. on point forecasts (RMSE) | seasonal influenza point forecasts · CDC ILI retrospective forecasts 2012/13-2018/19 | RMSE | Mixed |
Closest papers by meaning
- Predicting Spatio-Temporal Propagation of Seasonal Influenza Using Variational Gaussian Process Regression (AAAI 2016 · similarity 0.89)
- SPATIALEPIBENCH: Benchmarking Spatial Information and Epidemic Priors in Forecasting (NeurIPS 2026 · similarity 0.82)
- EARTH: Epidemiology-Aware Neural ODE with Continuous Disease Transmission Graph (ICML 2025 · similarity 0.80)
- Aligning Time-series by Local Trends: Applications in Public Health (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.79)
- Robust and Conjugate Spatio-Temporal Gaussian Processes (ICML 2025 · similarity 0.79)
- Turbocharging Gaussian Process Inference with Approximate Sketch-and-Project (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.78)
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