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PAC Confidence Predictions for Deep Neural Network Classifiers

ICLR 2021 · Learning theory and algorithms › Prediction and decision losses · approach: Probabilistic calibration · 6 citations (OpenAlex)

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Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Apply temperature scaling instead of naive softmaxResNet101 confidence predictions · ImageNet validationECE: 4.79% -> 1.66%Helped
Use histogram binning instead of naive softmaxResNet101 confidence predictions · ImageNet validationECE: 4.79% -> 0.99%Helped
Use PAC confidence bounds to construct confidence intervalsHistogram-binned ResNet101 predictions · ImageNet validationECE interval coverage: [0.0%, 3.76%]Helped
Use PAC confidence bounds to set the cascade exit thresholdResNet101 cascading classifier · ImageNet testinference time: 32%Helped
Use PAC confidence bounds to set the cascade exit thresholdResNet101 cascading classifier · ImageNet testCPU/GPU inference time: 54%Helped
Use PAC confidence bounds rather than bin means for cascade thresholdingResNet101 cascading classifier · ImageNet testdesired error bound satisfactionHelped
Use histogram bin means rather than PAC confidence bounds for cascade thresholdingResNet101 cascading classifier · ImageNet testinference timeHelped
Use PAC confidence bounds to set the shield thresholdAI Habitat recoverability shield · AI Habitatsafe rollout rateHelped
Use histogram bin means rather than PAC confidence bounds for shield thresholdingAI Habitat recoverability shield · AI Habitatsuccess rateNo clear effect
Use a naive fixed threshold instead of the PAC-selected shield thresholdAI Habitat recoverability shield · AI Habitatsafety constraint satisfactionHurt
Set the shield threshold to ξ instead of selecting it with PAC boundsAI Habitat recoverability shield · AI Habitatsafety constraint satisfactionHurt
Increase the calibration sample count n (ablation)ResNet101 cascading classifier · ImageNet testinference speedHelped

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