Research map / Probabilistic and scientific modeling / Uncertainty and Gaussian processes
Tracking Disease Outbreaks from Sparse Data with Bayesian Inference
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Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model partial observability and the testing process with a GP prior over time-varying R_t | R_t estimation · Outbreak, longitudinal PCR, 0.5% | MAE: 0.329 $\pm$ 0.211 -> 0.228 $\pm$ 0.0713 | Helped |
| Model partial observability and the testing process with a GP prior over time-varying R_t | R_t estimation · Outbreak, longitudinal serological, 0.5% | MAE: 0.308 $\pm$ 0.226 -> 0.237 $\pm$ 0.0805 | Helped |
| Model partial observability and the testing process with a GP prior over time-varying R_t | R_t estimation · Outbreak, cross-sectional PCR, 0.05% | MAE: 0.306 $\pm$ 0.199 -> 0.215 $\pm$ 0.063 | Helped |
| Model partial observability and the testing process with a GP prior over time-varying R_t | R_t estimation · Outbreak, cross-sectional serological, 0.05% | MAE: 0.25 $\pm$ 0.146 -> 0.262 $\pm$ 0.09 | Hurt |
| Model partial observability and the testing process with a GP prior over time-varying R_t | R_t estimation · Outbreak, uniform underreporting PCR, 1% | MAE: 0.311 $\pm$ 0.193 -> 0.204 $\pm$ 0.0806 | Helped |
| Model partial observability and the testing process with a GP prior over time-varying R_t | R_t estimation · Random trend, longitudinal PCR, 0.5% | MAE: 0.332 $\pm$ 0.233 -> 0.199 $\pm$ 0.0745 | Helped |
| Model partial observability and the testing process with a GP prior over time-varying R_t | R_t estimation · Random trend, cross-sectional serological, 0.05% | MAE: 0.362 $\pm$ 0.242 -> 0.242 $\pm$ 0.0889 | Helped |
| Model partial observability and the testing process with a GP prior over time-varying R_t | R_t estimation · Random trend, uniform underreporting serological, 1% | MAE: 0.527 $\pm$ 0.298 -> 0.2 $\pm$ 0.0793 | Helped |
| Use GPRt for cross-sectional serological estimation at 0.05% rather than EpiNow | R_t estimation · Outbreak, cross-sectional serological, 0.05% | MAE: 0.25 $\pm$ 0.146 -> 0.262 $\pm$ 0.09 | Hurt |
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