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Phase-Informed Bayesian Ensemble Models Improve Performance of COVID-19 Forecasts
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Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use historical forecasts from the current phase to estimate BMA weights and variances | BMA · COVID-19 county-level forecasts, Delta wave surge | median ranking: 4 | Helped |
| Use historical forecasts from the current phase to estimate BMA weights and variances | BMA · COVID-19 county-level forecasts, Omicron wave surge | median ranking: 1 | Helped |
| Use phase-informed training data instead of the most recent contiguous weeks | BMA · COVID-19 county-level forecasts, overall | median MAE | No clear effect |
| Use phase-informed training data instead of the most recent contiguous weeks | BMA · COVID-19 county-level forecasts, inflection regions | forecast trajectory accuracy | Helped |
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