Research map / Time series / Causal and generative time series
OMuLeT: Online Multi-Lead Time Location Prediction for Hurricane Trajectory Forecasting
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Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| use OMuLeT instead of NHC official forecasts at 48h lead | OMuLeT · Atlantic and Pacific ocean, 48h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 68.47 -> 59.08 | Helped |
| use OMuLeT instead of ensemble mean at 48h lead | OMuLeT · Atlantic and Pacific ocean, 48h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 68.49 -> 59.08 | Helped |
| use OMuLeT instead of ORION at 48h lead | OMuLeT · Atlantic and Pacific ocean, 48h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 66.27 -> 59.08 | Helped |
| use OMuLeT instead of ORION at 12h lead | OMuLeT · Atlantic and Pacific ocean, 12h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 25.50 -> 24.94 | Helped |
| use OMuLeT instead of ensemble mean at 12h lead | OMuLeT · Pacific ocean only, 12h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 24.67 -> 23.73 | Helped |
| use PA online learning instead of ensemble mean | PA · Atlantic and Pacific ocean, 48h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 68.49 -> 68.01 | No clear effect |
| use ORION online learning with restart instead of ensemble mean | ORION · Atlantic and Pacific ocean, 48h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 68.49 -> 66.27 | Helped |
| use LSTM on historical best track instead of ensemble mean | LSTM · Atlantic and Pacific ocean, 48h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 68.49 -> 537.29 | Hurt |
| use ensemble mean instead of NHC official forecast | EM · Atlantic and Pacific ocean, 12h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 26.58 -> 26.09 | No clear effect |
| OMuLeT vs NHC on Atlantic only at 48h | OMuLeT · Atlantic ocean only, 48h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 75.94 -> 63.61 | Helped |
| OMuLeT vs NHC on Pacific only at 48h | OMuLeT · Pacific ocean only, 48h | mean geographic distance error (miles): 62.25 -> 55.80 | Helped |
| increase lead time from 12h to 48h for OMuLeT improvement margin over baselines | OMuLeT · Atlantic and Pacific ocean | mean geographic distance error (miles): 24.94 -> 59.08 | Hurt |
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