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Masked Language Modeling Becomes Conditional Density Estimation for Tabular Data Synthesis
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Proposes MaCoDE, a masked-language-model-style transformer that estimates histogram-based conditional densities for mixed-type tabular data, enabling synthetic data generation and multiple imputation.
Problem
Generating synthetic mixed-type tabular data with high machine learning utility requires accurate conditional distribution estimation, and existing MLM-based tabular synthesizers lack distributional guarantees; missing data handling and multiple imputation are also needed.
Approach
Redefine the consecutive multi-class classification in masked language modeling as histogram-based non-parametric conditional density estimation over CDF-transformed continuous columns, with a theoretical bound showing that orderless classification loss minimizes a total variation bound between conditional distributions.
Key results
- On Q1, MaCoDE achieves the best MMD (.007), Wasserstein distance (1.630), SMAPE (.158), F1 (.635), and feature selection (.925) among compared synthesizers, with TabMT and TabDDPM competitive on some metrics.
- MaCoDE with 30% missingness in training data retains machine learning utility close to the complete-data version (e.g., SMAPE .164-.169 vs .158).
- For multiple imputation under MAR at 0.3 missingness, MaCoDE achieves coverage .963 with bias .006, competitive with MIWAE, not-MIWAE and EGC.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use MaCoDE instead of TabMT | Synthetic tabular data generation · 10 tabular datasets | MMD: .012_{\pm .001} -> .007_{\pm .001} | Helped |
| Use MaCoDE instead of TabMT | Synthetic tabular data generation · 10 tabular datasets | F1: .622_{\pm .024} -> .635_{\pm .023} | Helped |
| Use MaCoDE instead of TabMT | Synthetic tabular data generation · 10 tabular datasets | Model: .528_{\pm .039} -> .599_{\pm .035} | Helped |
| Use MaCoDE instead of TabDDPM | Synthetic tabular data generation · 10 tabular datasets | Feature: .770_{\pm .027} -> .925_{\pm .007} | Helped |
| Train MaCoDE with incomplete data under MCAR, MAR, MNARL, or MNARQ | MaCoDE · 10 tabular datasets, missingness rate 0.3 | SMAPE | Mixed |
| Train MaCoDE with incomplete data under MCAR, MAR, MNARL, or MNARQ | MaCoDE · 10 tabular datasets, missingness rate 0.3 | F1 | Mixed |
| Use MaCoDE(MAR) instead of MICE | Multiple imputation · 5 datasets, MAR missingness rate 0.3 | Bias: .010_{\pm .001} -> .006_{\pm .000} | No clear effect |
| Use MaCoDE(MAR) instead of EGC | Multiple imputation · 5 datasets, MAR missingness rate 0.3 | Coverage: ${.996}_{\pm .004}$ -> $.963_{\pm .009}$ | Hurt |
Surprising findings
- MaCoDE has the worst KL divergence and GoF among top methods (KL .034 vs TabMT .011), indicating marginal fidelity is not its strength.
Limitations
- Theoretical guarantee holds only under Lipschitz continuity of the conditional densities (Assumption 2).
- Performance declines at high missingness rates (F1 drops beyond 0.5 missingness on kings).
- Marginal statistical fidelity (KL, GoF) is weaker than TabMT and the baseline in some metrics.
Experimental setup
Datasets: abalone banknote breast concrete covtype kings letter loan redwine whitewine
Benchmarks: abalone banknote breast concrete covtype kings letter loan redwine whitewine
Metrics: KL divergence GoF test MMD Wasserstein distance SMAPE F1 model selection Spearman correlation feature selection Spearman correlation bias coverage
Baselines: CTGAN TVAE CTAB-GAN CTAB-GAN+ DistVAE TabDDPM TabMT MICE GAIN missMDA VAEAC MIWAE
Builds on: BERT masked language modeling TabMT TabPFN Rubin multiple imputation
Closest papers by meaning
- TabNAT: A Continuous-Discrete Joint Generative Framework for Tabular Data (ICML 2025 · similarity 0.86)
- Synthesizing Privacy-Preserving Text Data via Finetuning *without* Finetuning Billion-Scale LLMs (ICML 2025 · similarity 0.86)
- Scaling up Masked Diffusion Models on Text (ICLR 2025 · similarity 0.86)
- Breaking the Quality–Privacy Tradeoff in Tabular Data Generation via In-Context Learning (NeurIPS 2026 · similarity 0.86)
- PrE-Text: Training Language Models on Private Federated Data in the Age of LLMs (ICML 2024 · similarity 0.85)
- HARMONIC: Harnessing LLMs for Tabular Data Synthesis and Privacy Protection (NeurIPS 2024 · similarity 0.85)
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