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Improving Multimodal Social Media Popularity Prediction via Selective Retrieval Knowledge Augmentation
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Proposes SKAPP, a selective retrieval-augmented framework for multimodal social media popularity prediction that uses a metadata-aware meta retriever, an RRCP-based selective refiner, and vision-language GNNs with RRCP-attention fusion.
Problem
Predicting popularity of multimodal user-generated content (UGC) on social media, where existing methods treat each UGC in isolation and simple semantic retrieval introduces irrelevant or noisy context.
Approach
A meta retriever builds BM25 queries from vision-language descriptions plus metadata (user, tags, posting info), and a selective refiner keeps only retrieved UGCs whose Relative Retrieval Contribution to Prediction (RRCP) is non-negative; the kept UGCs are aggregated by vision and language GNNs and fused with RRCP-weighted attention.
Key results
- SKAPP reaches MSE 0.9662 on ICIP, 1.8196 on SMPD and 2.0936 on Instagram, versus second-best MSE of 1.5614 (w/o retrieval baseline ablation) / 1.7600 (MMRA) on ICIP.
- Reported relative MSE improvements of 39.61% (ICIP), 48.19% (SMPD), and 46.94% (Instagram) over the second-best method.
- Ablation shows removing the meta retriever raises ICIP MSE from 0.9662 to 1.9006, and removing the selective refiner raises it to 1.1004.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add SKAPP selective retrieval knowledge augmentation | multimodal popularity prediction · ICIP | MSE: 1.7600 -> 0.9662 | Helped |
| Add SKAPP selective retrieval knowledge augmentation | multimodal popularity prediction · SMPD | MSE: 3.5119 -> 1.8196 | Helped |
| Add SKAPP selective retrieval knowledge augmentation | multimodal popularity prediction · Instagram | MSE: 3.9456 -> 2.0936 | Helped |
| Add retrieval (ablation) | SKAPP · ICIP | MSE: 1.5614 -> 0.9662 | Helped |
| Add retrieval (ablation) | SKAPP · SMPD | MSE: 4.0443 -> 1.8196 | Helped |
| Add retrieval (ablation) | SKAPP · Instagram | MSE: 3.2734 -> 2.0936 | Helped |
| Add the meta retriever (ablation) | SKAPP · ICIP | MSE: 1.9006 -> 0.9662 | Helped |
| Add the meta retriever (ablation) | SKAPP · SMPD | MSE: 4.1353 -> 1.8196 | Helped |
| Add the meta retriever (ablation) | SKAPP · Instagram | MSE: 5.2537 -> 2.0936 | Helped |
| Add the selective refiner (ablation) | SKAPP · ICIP | MSE: 1.1004 -> 0.9662 | Helped |
| Add the selective refiner (ablation) | SKAPP · SMPD | MSE: 2.0854 -> 1.8196 | Helped |
| Add the selective refiner (ablation) | SKAPP · Instagram | MSE: 2.6332 -> 2.0936 | Helped |
Surprising findings
- Semantic-only retrieval based on photos or texts performs worse than metadata-based retrieval in the ablation.
- Retrieval adds substantial computational cost: about 7 hours of retrieval for a 300K-UGC dataset, though the authors argue the gain justifies it.
Limitations
- Retrieval is computationally expensive (hours per dataset) compared to lightweight baselines.
- Performance degrades with reduced training data and polluted UGCs/retrievals, though SKAPP remains better than baselines.
- Selective refinement uses directional contribution estimates that rely on a trained model, rather than a specialized estimator.
Experimental setup
Datasets: ICIP SMPD Instagram
Benchmarks: ICIP SMPD Instagram
Metrics: MSE MAE Spearman's rank correlation
Baselines: SVR HyFea MFTM CLSTM HMMVED DLBA MASSL BLIP CBAN NIPA MMRA
Builds on: GraphAdapter BM25 conditional cross-mutual information NIPA MMRA
Closest papers by meaning
- THGFormer: Time-Aware Hypergraph Learning for Multimodal Social Media Popularity Prediction (Student Abstract) (AAAI 2024 · similarity 0.90)
- SMTPD: A New Benchmark for Temporal Prediction of Social Media Popularity (CVPR 2025 · similarity 0.88)
- In-context Prompt-augmented Micro-video Popularity Prediction (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.86)
- LGMRec: Local and Global Graph Learning for Multimodal Recommendation (AAAI 2024 · similarity 0.84)
- DOGE: LLMs-Enhanced Hyper-Knowledge Graph Recommender for Multimodal Recommendation (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.84)
- CasFT: Future Trend Modeling for Information Popularity Prediction with Dynamic Cues-Driven Diffusion Models (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.83)
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