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Learning to Stop: Dynamic Simulation Monte-Carlo Tree Search

AAAI 2021 · Probabilistic and scientific modeling › Molecules and proteins · approach: Machine learning for physical simulation · 3 citations (OpenAlex)

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Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use State-UN to stop at the beginning of searchAlphaZero NoGo · NoGo vs PV-MCTS with 1600 simulationsWin Rate: 49% win rate with 801 average simulations; less than 40% of the resource still gives 43% win rateMixed
Use calibrated PV-NN policy confidence instead of State-UN (ablation)DS-MCTS on NoGo · NoGo vs PV-MCTSWin Rate: 48.6% win rate with 925 average simulations; below 0.4 average simulation ratio it performs worse than the baselineHurt
Add MCTS-UN checkpoint at 160 (ablation)DS-MCTS on NoGo · NoGo vs PV-MCTS with 1600 simulationsWin Rate: 49.2% win rate with 715 average simulationsHelped
Add MCTS-UN checkpoint at 800 (ablation)DS-MCTS on NoGo · NoGo vs PV-MCTS with 1600 simulationsWin Rate: 48.5% win rate with 591 average simulationsHelped
Add the STOP strategy (ablation)DS-MCTS on NoGo · NoGo vs PV-MCTS with 1600 simulationsAvg Sim: 591 -> 555Helped
Use dynamic uncertainty stopping rather than PV-MCTS with STOPNoGo agent · NoGo vs PV-MCTSAvg Sim: DS-MCTS: 555 simulations; PV-MCTS needs 964 simulations to exceed 48% win rateHelped
Use multiple MCTS-UN checkpoints (ablation)DS-MCTS on NoGo · NoGo, 4000 vs 1600Win Rate: 61.4% at checkpoint 800; 54.8% at checkpoints 160/400/800/1600Mixed
Scale the search maximum from 1600 to 4000 and use MCTS-UNDS-MCTS on NoGo · NoGo, 4000 vs 1600Win Rate: 61.4%Helped
Use checkpoints 400/800/1600 (ablation)DS-MCTS on NoGo · NoGo, 6400 vs 6400Avg Sim: 2453 average simulations with 46.5% win rateHelped
Add checkpoints 160/400/800 to State-UN stopping (ablation)DS-MCTS on 9x9 Go · 9x9 Go, 1600 vs 1600Avg Sim Ratio: 79.2% -> 59.4%Helped
Use checkpoints 160/400/800 at a larger search maximum (ablation)DS-MCTS on 9x9 Go · 9x9 Go, 3200 vs 3200Avg Sim Ratio: 81.98% -> 58.0%Helped

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