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Large language models suffer from a curse of ambiguity
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Identifies a "curse of ambiguity" showing that next-token distributions with larger support are harder to learn, with theoretical roots in capacity, embedding dimension, optimization, and sampling noise, validated on synthetic 3-gram transformers and OLMo-2 models.
Problem
Neural networks producing discrete next-token distributions, including LLMs, may struggle to accurately learn high-entropy (ambiguous) next-token distributions, which matters for sampling-based training, diversity, and calibration.
Approach
Formalizes ambiguity as support size (effective support via exponential entropy) and shows via linear-softmax analysis that capacity scales as hd/k, embedding dimension must grow linearly with k (h >= 2k), gradient flow slows for large k, and label sampling noise adds a k-dependent floor (k-1)/(4k) to the KL.
Key results
- Capacity of the Hebbian linear head scales as hd/k (up to log factors), with a matching sign-pattern upper bound.
- Embedding dimension h >= 2k suffices to exactly represent all size-k uniform distributions in the idealized setting.
- Label sampling noise adds an asymptotic KL floor of (k-1)/(4k), approaching 1/4 as k grows; OLMo-2 1B shows higher per-context KL at higher effective support size at fixed semantic context frequency.
Surprising findings
- Transformers leak probability mass outside the support for ambiguous contexts, making the sequence-level distribution higher-entropy than ground truth.
- Some low-frequency contexts with OLMo-2 1B agree closely with the larger model, attributed to in-context copying mechanisms.
Limitations
- Theory uses uniform-on-support distributions and random/i.i.d. embeddings; real next-token distributions are non-uniform.
- Real-data analysis relies on proxies: OLMo-2 13B as ground truth and kNN embedding density as context frequency, both biased.
- Ideal-backbone assumption in embedding analysis ignores how the backbone learns embeddings.
Experimental setup
Datasets: TinyStories Dolma v1.7
Benchmarks: synthetic 3-gram task (TinyStories-derived) Dolma v1.7 per-context KL evaluation
Metrics: KL divergence probability mass on support entropy gap effective support size semantic context frequency
Baselines: OLMo-2 1B
Builds on: Hopfield networks softmax bottleneck compressed sensing gradient flow Hebbian associative memory
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