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Breaking the Order Barrier: Off-Policy Evaluation for Confounded POMDPs

NeurIPS 2025 · Reinforcement learning › MDPs and planning · approach: POMDP policy optimization · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Proposes off-policy evaluation estimators for confounded POMDPs using bridge functions, aiming to break the order barrier in error bounds with respect to horizon T and the observation-action space size.

Problem

Off-policy evaluation in partially observable MDPs with unobserved confounding, where existing bridge-function-based estimators have statistical error bounds that depend poorly on horizon length T and the size of the observation-action space |O||A|.

Approach

Develops bridge-function-based OPE estimators for confounded POMDPs whose statistical error bounds improve on prior order-dependent rates in horizon and observation-action space size, as suggested by the title ("Breaking the Order Barrier").

Limitations

Experimental setup

Builds on: bridge function methods for confounded POMDPs

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