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L$^2$M: Mutual Information Scaling Law for Long-Context Language Modeling
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Proposes a bipartite mutual information scaling law (sub-volume, power-law) for natural language and derives the L²M condition lower-bounding how fast a language model's history state must grow with context length, validated on Gaussian synthetic data and PG19 with Mamba and GPT2.
Problem
Lacking a theory of what model memory is needed to capture multi-token long-range dependencies in natural language, existing two-point mutual information analyses are argued to be incomplete for guiding long-context architecture design.
Approach
Uses bipartite mutual information between adjacent text segments, estimated with LLMs as density estimators (direct and vCLUB estimators), to show power-law growth; then bounds model capacity by history state dimension, giving the L²M condition that history state must scale at least as L^beta.
Key results
- Bipartite mutual information on PG19 measured with LLaMA 3.1 405B shows clear power-law (sub-volume) scaling over thousands of tokens, with estimators likely underestimating the exponent.
- Mamba KL divergence on synthetic Gaussian data collapses onto one curve when plotted against I^BP / dim(z) across sequence lengths 64 to 16,384 and model sizes 50M to 1.4B.
- Extrapolation suggests bipartite mutual information for a one-million-token sequence could exceed 60,000 nats, implying recurrent state dimensions approaching one million for low KL.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use GPT2 instead of smaller Mamba or Mamba2 models | Synthetic Gaussian language modeling · Synthetic Gaussian, varying sequence lengths | average KL divergence per token | Helped |
| Increase sequence length for smaller Mamba and Mamba2 models | Mamba and Mamba2 · Synthetic Gaussian, varying sequence lengths | average KL divergence per token | Hurt |
| Increase Mamba or Mamba2 model size | Mamba and Mamba2 · Synthetic Gaussian, sequence length 4096 | average KL divergence per token | Helped |
| Scale recurrent state size relative to bipartite mutual information | Mamba · Synthetic Gaussian, sequence lengths 64 to 16,384 | average KL divergence per token | Helped |
| Use Mamba instead of GPT2 at early token positions | Mamba and GPT2 · PG19, 8192-token training sequences | position-wise conditional NLL | Helped |
| Use Mamba instead of GPT2 at later token positions | Mamba and GPT2 · PG19, 8192-token training sequences | position-wise conditional NLL | Hurt |
| Increase Mamba model size | Mamba · PG19, 8192-token training sequences | position-wise conditional NLL | Helped |
| Use bias-corrected direct estimation instead of uncorrected direct estimation (ablation) | Bipartite mutual information estimator · Natural language, varying sequence lengths | bipartite mutual information estimate | Mixed |
Surprising findings
- Two-point mutual information can mislead: a Markov-like identical-token distribution shows constant long-range two-point MI, and Gaussian families with identical two-point decay differ drastically in bipartite MI scaling (power-law vs logarithmic).
Limitations
- L2M condition is necessary but not sufficient and does not address reasoning or downstream task performance.
- Measured exponents from LLM-based estimators likely underestimate the true exponent; evaluation relies mainly on open-source models.
- Synthetic Gaussian validation may not capture all natural-language complexity.
Experimental setup
Datasets: PG19 Wikipedia synthetic multivariate Gaussian distributions
Benchmarks: PG19 Wikipedia synthetic Gaussian KL divergence test
Metrics: bipartite mutual information two-point mutual information per-token KL divergence position-wise negative log likelihood power-law exponent
Baselines: MINE InfoNCE K-NN estimators GPT2 Mamba Mamba2
Builds on: vCLUB Hilberg conjecture MINE InfoNCE Mamba
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