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L$^2$M: Mutual Information Scaling Law for Long-Context Language Modeling

NeurIPS 2025 · Architectures and efficiency › Attention and transformers · approach: State space and recurrent sequence models · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Proposes a bipartite mutual information scaling law (sub-volume, power-law) for natural language and derives the L²M condition lower-bounding how fast a language model's history state must grow with context length, validated on Gaussian synthetic data and PG19 with Mamba and GPT2.

Problem

Lacking a theory of what model memory is needed to capture multi-token long-range dependencies in natural language, existing two-point mutual information analyses are argued to be incomplete for guiding long-context architecture design.

Approach

Uses bipartite mutual information between adjacent text segments, estimated with LLMs as density estimators (direct and vCLUB estimators), to show power-law growth; then bounds model capacity by history state dimension, giving the L²M condition that history state must scale at least as L^beta.

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use GPT2 instead of smaller Mamba or Mamba2 modelsSynthetic Gaussian language modeling · Synthetic Gaussian, varying sequence lengthsaverage KL divergence per tokenHelped
Increase sequence length for smaller Mamba and Mamba2 modelsMamba and Mamba2 · Synthetic Gaussian, varying sequence lengthsaverage KL divergence per tokenHurt
Increase Mamba or Mamba2 model sizeMamba and Mamba2 · Synthetic Gaussian, sequence length 4096average KL divergence per tokenHelped
Scale recurrent state size relative to bipartite mutual informationMamba · Synthetic Gaussian, sequence lengths 64 to 16,384average KL divergence per tokenHelped
Use Mamba instead of GPT2 at early token positionsMamba and GPT2 · PG19, 8192-token training sequencesposition-wise conditional NLLHelped
Use Mamba instead of GPT2 at later token positionsMamba and GPT2 · PG19, 8192-token training sequencesposition-wise conditional NLLHurt
Increase Mamba model sizeMamba · PG19, 8192-token training sequencesposition-wise conditional NLLHelped
Use bias-corrected direct estimation instead of uncorrected direct estimation (ablation)Bipartite mutual information estimator · Natural language, varying sequence lengthsbipartite mutual information estimateMixed

Surprising findings

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: PG19 Wikipedia synthetic multivariate Gaussian distributions

Benchmarks: PG19 Wikipedia synthetic Gaussian KL divergence test

Metrics: bipartite mutual information two-point mutual information per-token KL divergence position-wise negative log likelihood power-law exponent

Baselines: MINE InfoNCE K-NN estimators GPT2 Mamba Mamba2

Builds on: vCLUB Hilberg conjecture MINE InfoNCE Mamba

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