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Simultaneous Modeling of Protein Conformation and Dynamics via Autoregression
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Proposes ConfRover, an autoregressive model that encodes each MD frame with a frozen OpenFold encoder, models temporal dependencies with a Llama-style causal transformer, and decodes each frame with an SE(3) diffusion head, unifying trajectory simulation, time-independent sampling, and conformation interpolation.
Problem
Existing generative models for protein MD either ignore temporal dependencies between conformations or cannot directly sample time-independent conformations, and no single model handles trajectory simulation, ensemble sampling, and transition interpolation.
Approach
Factorize an MD trajectory as an autoregressive product over frames, encode frames into latents with a shared encoder, model inter-frame dependencies with a causal transformer in latent space, and generate each continuous conformation with an SE(3) diffusion decoder trained by denoising score matching; masking all context frames gives time-independent sampling and reordering frames gives interpola
Key results
- On the multi-start benchmark, ConfRover reaches Pearson 0.75 on C-alpha coordinate trajectory changes versus 0.56 for MDGen.
- In 100 ns simulation state recovery, ConfRover achieves F1 0.58 and recall 0.42 versus 0.42 and 0.29 for MDGen.
- Time-independent sampling is comparable to AlphaFlow and ConfDiff, with ConfRover best on several metrics among the three.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use autoregressive ConfRover instead of MDGen | Protein trajectory simulation · Multi-start | Cα trajectory correlation: 0.56 ± 0.03 -> 0.75 ± 0.01 | Helped |
| Use autoregressive ConfRover instead of MDGen | Protein trajectory simulation · Multi-start | PCA 2D trajectory correlation: 0.18 ± 0.01 -> 0.73 ± 0.01 | Helped |
| Use autoregressive ConfRover instead of MDGen | Protein trajectory simulation · 100 ns simulation | JSD: 0.56 ± 0.01 -> 0.51 ± 0.01 | Helped |
| Use autoregressive ConfRover instead of MDGen | Protein trajectory simulation · 100 ns simulation | Recall: 0.29 ± 0.01 -> 0.42 ± 0.00 | Helped |
| Use autoregressive ConfRover instead of MDGen | Protein trajectory simulation · 100 ns simulation | F1: 0.42 ± 0.01 -> 0.58 ± 0.00 | Helped |
| Use ConfRover rather than specialized ensemble-generation baselines | Time-independent conformation sampling · Time-independent generation | Per target RMSF r: 0.85 ± 0.01 -> 0.85 ± 0.00 | No clear effect |
| Remove the single-frame objective (ablation) | ConfRover · Time-independent generation | MD PCA W2: 1.47 ± 0.03 -> 1.43 ± 0.01 | No clear effect |
| Remove the single-frame objective (ablation) | ConfRover · Time-independent generation | Pairwise RMSD r: 0.51 ± 0.01 -> 0.48 ± 0.00 | Hurt |
| Remove the single-frame objective (ablation) | ConfRover · Time-independent generation | Per target RMSF r: 0.85 ± 0.00 -> 0.84 ± 0.01 | Hurt |
| Train with an interpolation objective and reorder conditioning frames (ablation) | ConfRover · Conformation interpolation | Directed transition toward the end state | Helped |
| Continue training with the interpolation objective (ablation) | ConfRover · Conformation quality | MolProbity score: 1.72 ± 0.38 -> 1.61 ± 0.51 | Helped |
Limitations
- Triangular updates in structural modules are computationally costly, limiting scaling to larger proteins and longer trajectories.
- Evaluation is limited to ATLAS single-chain proteins and few baselines exist for trajectory simulation and interpolation.
- Still falls short of MD 100ns oracle in state recovery and fidelity of conformational space.
Experimental setup
Datasets: ATLAS
Benchmarks: ATLAS
Metrics: Pearson correlation JSD recall F1 pairwise RMSD r RMSF r RMWD PCA W2 weak/transient/exposed contact J Ramachandran outliers
Baselines: MDGen AlphaFlow ConfDiff
Builds on: AlphaFlow ConfDiff MDGen OpenFold Llama
Closest papers by meaning
- TEMPO: Temporal Multi-scale Autoregressive Generation of Protein Conformational Ensembles (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.92)
- Generative Modeling of Molecular Dynamics Trajectories (NeurIPS 2024 · similarity 0.89)
- Generative Modeling of Full-Atom Protein Conformations using Latent Diffusion on Graph Embeddings (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.88)
- SE(3)-Stochastic Flow Matching for Protein Backbone Generation (ICLR 2024 · similarity 0.88)
- Atomic Trajectory Modeling with State Space Models for Biomolecular Dynamics (NeurIPS 2026 · similarity 0.88)
- Predicting directional flexibility in proteins (NeurIPS 2026 · similarity 0.88)
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