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From Likelihood to Fitness: Improving Variant Effect Prediction in Protein and Genome Language Models

NeurIPS 2025 · Probabilistic and scientific modeling › Molecules and proteins · approach: Protein fitness and variant effect prediction · 4 citations (OpenAlex)

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Examines whether likelihood from protein and genome language models serves as a good proxy for fitness in zero-shot variant effect prediction, and proposes improvements to close the gap.

Problem

Zero-shot variant effect prediction with generative sequence models assumes that sequence likelihood is a proxy for fitness, an assumption that often breaks down in practice.

Approach

Argues that the likelihood-as-fitness assumption fails in practice and proposes methods to improve variant effect prediction in protein and genome language models beyond raw likelihood comparison. Full method details are not available from the abstract provided.

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