Research map / Large language models / Reasoning and chain of thought
On Reasoning Strength Planning in Large Reasoning Models
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Shows that large reasoning models pre-plan reasoning length in question-token activations: a linear probe predicts reasoning token count, and a pre-allocated difference-in-means direction whose magnitude controls length (via </think> logits) can be used to steer length and accuracy.
Problem
How and where large reasoning models decide their reasoning strength (number of reasoning tokens) before generation, given their documented difficulty-aware allocation of reasoning length.
Approach
Uses linear probes on question-final activations to predict reasoning length before generation, and extracts a difference-in-means direction between difficulty levels that is nearly parallel across difficulties; adding or subtracting it steers reasoning length and affects the </think> logit.
Key results
- Linear probe on question activations predicts reasoning token count with correlation about 0.84 (over 0.8 across models).
- Steering with the pre-allocated vector raises average accuracy on MATH500, AIME2024 and OlympiadBench for R1-Distill-Qwen-7B from 66.91 to 68.82 (+1.91).
- Negative steering reduces reasoning tokens on MMLU and MATH Level 1 questions while maintaining performance, serving as an efficient-inference application.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| add activation steering | R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B · MATH500 | accuracy: 82.77 -> 83.00 | Helped |
| add activation steering | R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B · AIME2024 | accuracy: 28.33 -> 29.58 | Helped |
| add activation steering | R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B · OlympiadBench | accuracy: 44.41 -> 44.67 | Helped |
| add activation steering | R1-Distill-Qwen-7B · AIME2024 | accuracy: 50.42 -> 55.00 | Helped |
| add activation steering | R1-Distill-Qwen-14B · AIME2024 | accuracy: 61.25 -> 67.08 | Helped |
| add activation steering | R1-Distill-Qwen-32B · AIME2024 | accuracy: 63.75 -> 67.50 | Helped |
| add activation steering | QwQ-32B · OlympiadBench | accuracy: 31.25 -> 31.25 | No clear effect |
| reduce steering strength with negative lambda (ablation) | R1-Distill-Qwen models · MATH500, AIME2024, and OlympiadBench | reasoning token number | Hurt |
| increase steering strength with positive lambda (ablation) | R1-Distill-Qwen models · MATH500, AIME2024, and OlympiadBench | accuracy | Mixed |
| steer with a positive pre-allocation vector (ablation) | R1-Distill-Qwen-7B · MATH500 | accuracy: 92.17 -> 92.65 | Helped |
| multiply the </think> logit by gamma = 2 (ablation) | R1-Distill-Qwen-7B · MATH500 | accuracy: 92.18 -> 56.20 | Hurt |
| multiply the </think> logit by gamma = 0.8 (ablation) | R1-Distill-Qwen-7B · MATH500 | accuracy: 92.18 -> 0.00 | Hurt |
Surprising findings
- Positive steering can improve accuracy, not just length, on math benchmarks.
- Naively scaling the </think> logit by a factor causes unstable behavior such as overlong answers or decoding errors.
Limitations
- Only a linear probe is tested; nonlinear predictors such as MLPs are not explored.
- Experiments focus mainly on Qwen-based models; generalization to other backbones is limited (only one Llama-based model added).
Experimental setup
Datasets: MATH AlpacaEval MMLU
Benchmarks: MATH500 AIME2024 OlympiadBench GPQA diamond LiveCodeBench MMLU
Metrics: accuracy reasoning token number answer token number correlation coefficient
Baselines: unsteered model (w/o steering)
Builds on: difference-in-means steering Lasso regression vLLM DeepSeek-R1 distillation
Closest papers by meaning
- Trade-offs in Large Reasoning Models: An Empirical Analysis of Deliberative and Adaptive Reasoning over Foundational Capabilities (AAAI 2026 · similarity 0.91)
- Don’t Think Longer, Think Wisely: Optimizing Thinking Dynamics for Large Reasoning Models (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.91)
- How Far Are We from Optimal Reasoning Efficiency? (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.91)
- The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.91)
- Measuring the Faithfulness of Thinking Drafts in Large Reasoning Models (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.90)
- Demystifying Reasoning Dynamics with Mutual Information: Thinking Tokens are Information Peaks in LLM Reasoning (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.90)
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