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List-Level Distribution Coupling with Applications to Speculative Decoding and Lossy Compression

NeurIPS 2025 · Learning theory and algorithms › Sample complexity · approach: Computational thresholds in graphs and structure · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Proposes Gumbel-max list sampling (GLS), a coupling of one target sample with K draft samples via shared exponential races, and applies it to drafter-invariant multi-draft speculative decoding and distributed lossy compression with side information.

Problem

Coupling distributions when one party generates a list of K samples and success requires the other party's sample to match any of them, without communication; applied to multi-draft speculative decoding and distributed lossy compression with side information.

Approach

Extends Gumbel-max coupling to list settings by taking a minimum over shared exponential variables across the K draft races for the target sample, while each draft uses its own race; yields a list matching lemma lower bound and a speculative decoding scheme that does not use rejection sampling and is conditionally drafter invariant.

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use GLS multi-draft speculative decoding instead of SpecInferQwen 2.5-7B with Qwen 2.5-0.5B i.i.d. drafts · GSM8KTR (%): 4.56(20) -> 4.83(24)No clear effect
Use GLS multi-draft speculative decoding instead of SpecInferQwen 2.5-7B with Qwen 2.5-0.5B i.i.d. drafts · HumanEvalTR (%): 7.89(85) -> 8.03(97)No clear effect
Use GLS multi-draft speculative decoding instead of SpecTrQwen 2.5-7B with Qwen 2.5-0.5B i.i.d. drafts · NaturalReasoningTR (%): 12.89(96) -> 12.75(114)No clear effect
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 0.5/1.0Qwen 2.5-7B · GSM8KTR (%): 0.06(102) -> 11.50(178)Helped
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 1.0/0.5Qwen 2.5-7B · GSM8KTR (%): 4.57(180) -> 11.40(158)Helped
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 1.0/1.0Qwen 2.5-7B · GSM8KTR (%): 6.02(135) -> 13.68(167)Helped
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 0.5/1.0Qwen 2.5-7B · HumanEvalTR (%): -1.96(67) -> 9.80(82)Helped
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 1.0/0.5Qwen 2.5-7B · HumanEvalTR (%): 4.13(160) -> 8.77(99)Helped
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 1.0/1.0Qwen 2.5-7B · HumanEvalTR (%): 6.32(36) -> 12.15(83)Helped
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 0.5/1.0Qwen 2.5-7B · MBPPTR (%): -1.87(79) -> 5.64(66)Helped
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 1.0/0.5Qwen 2.5-7B · MBPPTR (%): 4.77(55) -> 5.99(101)Helped
Use GLS multi-draft decoding instead of SpecInfer with draft temperatures 1.0/1.0Qwen 2.5-7B · MBPPTR (%): 5.17(1.13) -> 8.57(60)Helped

Surprising findings

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: GSM8K HumanEval NaturalReasoning MBPP MNIST

Benchmarks: GSM8K HumanEval NaturalReasoning MBPP MNIST

Metrics: block efficiency token rate speedup matching probability rate-distortion

Baselines: SpecInfer SpecTr single-draft drafter-invariant speculative decoding (Daliri et al.) single-draft speculative decoding shared-randomness baseline for compression

Builds on: Gumbel-max sampling Daliri et al. drafter-invariant speculative decoding Poisson matching lemma SpecInfer SpecTr

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