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Predictability Enables Parallelization of Nonlinear State Space Models

NeurIPS 2025 · Probabilistic and scientific modeling › Dynamical systems · approach: State-space inference for stochastic systems · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Shows that the conditioning of the DEER/Gauss-Newton merit function for evaluating nonlinear state space models is governed by the largest Lyapunov exponent, so predictable (contractive) systems parallelize well while chaotic ones converge slowly.

Problem

Parallel evaluation of nonlinear state space models by minimizing a residual-based merit function (DEER/DeepPCR) is only fast if the number of optimization steps is small, but what governs the conditioning of this merit function was unclear.

Approach

Links the PL constant of the DEER merit function to the largest Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics: predictable (negative LLE) systems give well-conditioned merit functions with global linear convergence and O((log T)^2) total time, while unpredictable (positive LLE) systems give exponentially flat, ill-conditioned landscapes.

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · ABCDEER steps: 4243 -> 3Helped
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · Chua's CircuitDEER steps: 697 -> 14Helped
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · Kawczynski-StrizhakDEER steps: 29396 -> 2Helped
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · LorenzDEER steps: 30000 -> 3Helped
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · Nosé--Hoover ThermostatDEER steps: 29765 -> 3Helped
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · RösslerDEER steps: 29288 -> 7Helped
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · SprottBDEER steps: 29486 -> 2Helped
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · ThomasDEER steps: 12747 -> 7Helped
use the stable observer instead of the systemDEER · Vallis El NiñoDEER steps: 30000 -> 3Helped

Surprising findings

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: dysts

Benchmarks: dysts chaotic flows

Metrics: DEER convergence steps largest Lyapunov exponent PL constant bounds wall-clock time

Baselines: sequential evaluation quasi-Newton DEER gradient descent

Builds on: DEER DeepPCR Newton-Kantorovich theorem

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