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TAU: Trajectory Data Augmentation with Uncertainty for Next POI Recommendation
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Proposes TAU, a graph-based trajectory augmentation method that inserts likely missing intermediate POIs (found by BFS on a global transition graph) and calibrates their uncertainty with confidence-aware evidential deep learning for next POI recommendation.
Problem
Next POI recommendation suffers from incomplete and sparse check-in trajectories, since users do not share every visit, which limits sequence models' use of historical context.
Approach
Use BFS over a global trajectory flow graph to find intermediate POIs between consecutive check-ins, sample them weighted by edge transition probabilities to complete sequences, then calibrate the uncertainty of these pseudo-labeled check-ins with confidence-aware evidential deep learning loss.
Key results
- On Gowalla, TAU reaches Acc@1 0.1604, Acc@10 0.4568 and MRR 0.2571, above Graph-Flashback (0.1495 / 0.4242 / 0.2401).
- On Foursquare, TAU reaches Acc@1 0.2931 and MRR 0.4410, versus 0.2786 and 0.4109 for Graph-Flashback.
- Plugging the augmentation into Flashback raises Gowalla Acc@1 from 0.1158 to 0.1415 and into SASRec from 0.0787 to 0.1041.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| use TAU instead of Graph-Flashback | Next POI recommendation · Gowalla | Acc@1: 0.1495 -> 0.1604 | Helped |
| use TAU instead of Graph-Flashback | Next POI recommendation · Gowalla | Acc@5: 0.3399 -> 0.3672 | Helped |
| use TAU instead of Graph-Flashback | Next POI recommendation · Gowalla | Acc@10: 0.4242 -> 0.4568 | Helped |
| use TAU instead of Graph-Flashback | Next POI recommendation · Gowalla | MRR: 0.2401 -> 0.2571 | Helped |
| use TAU instead of Graph-Flashback | Next POI recommendation · Foursquare | Acc@1: 0.2786 -> 0.2931 | Helped |
| use TAU instead of Graph-Flashback | Next POI recommendation · Foursquare | Acc@5: 0.5733 -> 0.6174 | Helped |
| use TAU instead of Graph-Flashback | Next POI recommendation · Foursquare | Acc@10: 0.6501 -> 0.6992 | Helped |
| use TAU instead of Graph-Flashback | Next POI recommendation · Foursquare | MRR: 0.4109 -> 0.4410 | Helped |
| add Uncertainty Calibration Module (ablation) | TAU · Gowalla | Acc@1: 0.1487 -> 0.1604 | Helped |
| add confidence thresholds to uncertainty calibration (ablation) | TAU · Gowalla | Acc@1: 0.1576 -> 0.1604 | Helped |
| add Trajectory Completion Module (ablation) | TAU · Gowalla | Acc@1: 0.1536 -> 0.1604 | Helped |
| use spatial-aware self-attention instead of Graph-Flashback spatial-temporal LSTM (ablation) | TAU · Gowalla | Acc@1: 0.1541 -> 0.1604 | Helped |
Surprising findings
- Random weighted sampling of completed check-ins still improves performance despite noise in the augmented trajectories, per the authors' ablation.
Limitations
- Missing-check-in candidates are sampled from a transition graph built only from the training data, so augmentation relies on past transition statistics.
- Hyperparameters (BFS depth m, threshold gamma) are tuned on Gowalla and sensitivity is only reported there.
- Gains rely on a fixed BFS depth and random sampling, and the paper notes sampling noise remains.
Experimental setup
Datasets: Gowalla Foursquare
Benchmarks: Gowalla Foursquare
Metrics: Acc@1 Acc@5 Acc@10 MRR
Baselines: PRME STRNN DeepMove STGN SASRec LSTPM Flashback STAN GETNext Graph-Flashback
Builds on: Graph-Flashback Flashback evidential deep learning Transformer (self-attention)
Closest papers by meaning
- GeoMamba: Towards Multi-granular POI Recommendation with Geographical State Space Model (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.87)
- Integrating Personalized Spatio-Temporal Clustering for Next POI Recommendation (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.86)
- Learning Time Slot Preferences via Mobility Tree for Next POI Recommendation (AAAI 2024 · similarity 0.86)
- Taming the Long Tail in Human Mobility Prediction (NeurIPS 2024 · similarity 0.85)
- Cross-Domain Trajectory Association Based on Hierarchical Spatiotemporal Enhanced Attention Hypergraph (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.84)
- Enhancing Long-and Short-Term Representations for Next POI Recommendations via Frequency and Hierarchical Contrastive Learning (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.83)
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