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Large Language Models' Expert-level Global History Knowledge Benchmark (HiST-LLM)
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Introduces HiST-LLM, a four-choice benchmark built from the Seshat Global History Databank to test LLM knowledge of global history, finding models beat chance (25%) but fall short of expert knowledge.
Problem
LLMs' graduate-level history knowledge is untested, and existing benchmarks are biased toward Western and recent history, so it is hard to measure balanced global historical knowledge.
Approach
Converts the expert-curated Seshat Global History Databank (36,000 data points across 600+ polities, with references and evidenced/inferred labels) into multiple-choice questions asking whether a trait was present, absent, inferred present, or inferred absent, and evaluates LLMs by region, time period, and variable category.
Key results
- Overall 4-choice balanced accuracy ranges from 33.6% (Llama-3.1-8B) to 46.0% (GPT-4-turbo), above the 25% chance level.
- Performance declines over time: GPT-4-turbo reaches 55.3% for 8000-6000 BCE but 38.7% for 1500-2000 CE.
- Models perform worst in Oceania and Sub-Saharan Africa; GPT-4-turbo leads in six of eight regions.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use GPT-4-turbo instead of Llama-3.1-8B (FP8) | HiST-LLM evaluation · HiST-LLM full dataset, 4-choice | balanced accuracy: 33.6 [33.2, 34.1] -> 46.0 [45.5, 46.5] | Helped |
| Use GPT-4-turbo instead of GPT-3.5-turbo | HiST-LLM evaluation · HiST-LLM full dataset, 4-choice | balanced accuracy: 35.6 [35.2, 35.9] -> 46.0 [45.5, 46.5] | Helped |
| Use GPT-4o instead of GPT-4-turbo | HiST-LLM evaluation · HiST-LLM full dataset, 2-choice | balanced accuracy: 60.0 [59.5, 60.6] -> 63.2 [62.7, 63.6] | Helped |
| Evaluate later rather than earlier historical periods | GPT-4-turbo · HiST-LLM temporal bins, 8k–6k BCE vs 1.5k–2k CE | balanced accuracy: 55.3 [48.0, 62.5] -> 38.7 [37.4, 40.0] | Hurt |
| Evaluate Oceania rather than Latin America | GPT-4-turbo · HiST-LLM geographic regions | balanced accuracy: 49.2 [47.0, 51.3] -> 38.0 [35.1, 40.8] | Hurt |
Surprising findings
- Models perform better on earlier historical periods than recent ones, despite more data existing for recent periods.
- Europe is not the region where models perform best; performance is highest in the Americas.
Limitations
- Seshat data is mostly drawn from English-language sources, limiting coverage of non-English regions.
- Benchmark reflects only current understanding; new evidence can change ground truth.
- Only one prompt format and temperature 0 were tested; models are a non-exhaustive selection.
Experimental setup
Datasets: Seshat Global History Databank
Benchmarks: HiST-LLM
Metrics: balanced accuracy adjusted balanced accuracy 2-choice balanced accuracy
Baselines: GPT-3.5-turbo Gemini-1.5-flash Llama-3-70B Llama-3.1-8B
Builds on: Seshat Global History Databank MMLU
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