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SkipPredict: When to Invest in Predictions for Scheduling
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Proposes SkipPredict, a two-stage queueing policy that uses one-bit cheap predictions to split jobs into short (FCFS, priority) and long, then applies costly service-time predictions with SPRPT only to long jobs, and analyzes it under external and server-time prediction-cost models via SOAP.
Problem
Scheduling with predicted job sizes in M/G/1 queues usually assumes predictions are free; when predictions cost resources (external cost or server time), it is unclear when they are worth their cost and whether all jobs should be predicted.
Approach
Use cheap one-bit predictions to classify jobs and spend expensive service-time predictions only on predicted-long jobs, scheduling predicted-short jobs FCFS at higher priority and long jobs by SPRPT; derive mean response times with SOAP under two prediction-cost models.
Key results
- SkipPredict's advantage over SPRPT grows as the cost gap between expensive and cheap predictions increases (e.g., c2 = k*c1 with larger k).
- When prediction costs are close (k=1), SkipPredict is less useful and SPRPT may be better; under high load, expensive predictions become beneficial and SkipPredict yields the lowest cost in both exponential and Weibull simulations.
- For Weibull service times, SkipPredict and SPRPT costs are similar due to heavy tails, though SkipPredict still gains over SPRPT.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use SkipPredict instead of FCFS, 1bit, or SPRPT | M/G/1 scheduling with exponential or Weibull service times · High arrival rates | total cost | Helped |
| Increase the expensive-prediction cost relative to the cheap-prediction cost (ablation) | SkipPredict · Exponential and Weibull service times | total cost | Helped |
| Use SkipPredict when cheap and expensive prediction costs are similar | SkipPredict · Exponential service times | total cost | Hurt |
| Invest in expensive service-time predictions | SkipPredict · Exponential and Weibull service times at high arrival rates | total cost | Helped |
| Use prediction-based scheduling at extremely high load | SkipPredict, SPRPT, and 1bit · Extremely high load | total cost | Hurt |
| Increase the short/long threshold T (ablation) | SkipPredict · Exponential and Weibull service times | total cost | Mixed |
| Use a larger T so fewer jobs receive expensive predictions (ablation) | SkipPredict · Large T, where most jobs are predicted short | total cost | Hurt |
| Replace SkipPredict with DelayPredict, which skips cheap predictions and delays expensive prediction until service reaches L | Single-queue scheduling · Cost gap between cheap and expensive predictions | total cost | Hurt |
| Replace SkipPredict with DelayPredict | Single-queue scheduling · Prediction costs are close | total cost | Helped |
| Increase the service limit L (ablation) | DelayPredict · Single-queue scheduling | total cost | Hurt |
| Use SkipPredict rather than SPRPT | Scheduling with Weibull service times · Weibull service times | total cost | Helped |
Surprising findings
- For heavy-tailed Weibull service times, the gain of SkipPredict over SPRPT is smaller because SPRPT is already effective for long jobs.
- Under extremely high load, prediction-based scheduling risks overflow so FCFS may be better.
Limitations
- Analysis assumes fixed (deterministic) prediction costs; random costs are only outlined theoretically.
- Simulations use simplified predictor models (the cheap predictor is derived from the uniform model by thresholding), not real ML predictors.
- Under extremely high load prediction-based policies risk instability, so FCFS may be preferable.
Experimental setup
Metrics: mean response time (cost) total cost including prediction cost
Baselines: FCFS SPRPT 1bit DelayPredict
Builds on: SOAP SPRPT 1bit advice scheduling algorithms with predictions
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