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Learning Safe Strategies for Value Maximizing Buyers in Uniform Price Auctions
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Studies learning to bid for value-maximizing RoI-constrained buyers in repeated uniform price auctions, characterizing finite safe undominated m-uniform strategies and learning them via a DAG-based Hedge/EXP3 implementation with richness-ratio guarantees.
Problem
Bidding in repeated uniform price multi-unit auctions by a value-maximizing buyer subject to per-round return-on-investment constraints, against strategic or adversarial competing bids, with m-uniform bidding (m bid-quantity pairs).
Approach
Defines safe strategies that satisfy RoI for any competing bids; shows they reduce to a finite class where bids equal average valuations w_{Q_j}, so the offline optimum is a max-weight path in a poly-size DAG; runs a weight-pushing Hedge (full info) or EXP3-like (bandit) update over edges to get poly(m,M) time learning, and introduces a richness ratio to compare against richer benchmark classes.
Key results
- Full-information regret O(M sqrt(m T log M)) and bandit regret O(M^2 m^{3/2} sqrt(T)) with matching Omega(M sqrt T) lower bound
- Richness ratios: 1/2 vs RoI-feasible m-pair strategies, m/m' vs safe m'-pair strategies, m/(2m') vs RoI-feasible m'-pair strategies, all tight in worst case
- On EU ETS data, empirical richness ratios are far above worst-case bounds (e.g., ~0.8 for 1-uniform vs 10-pair safe, vs worst-case 0.1)
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use the DAG-based learning algorithm to learn safe strategies with at most m bid-quantity pairs | Value-maximizing buyers in repeated uniform price auctions · Full-information feedback | regret: O(M\sqrt{m T\log M}) | Helped |
| Use edge-weight estimators with the DAG-based learner | Value-maximizing buyers in repeated uniform price auctions · Bandit feedback | regret: O(M^2\sqrt{m^3 T\log M}) | Helped |
| Use the structured DAG-based bandit learner instead of a naive EXP3 implementation over paths | Safe bidding strategies with at most m bid-quantity pairs · Bandit feedback | regret bound: T^{2/3} to \sqrt{T} | Helped |
| Restrict the learner to safe strategies with at most m bid-quantity pairs | Value-maximizing buyers · RoI-feasible strategies with at most m bid-quantity pairs | richness ratio: \alpha=1/2 | Hurt |
| Allow the clairvoyant m' bid-quantity pairs instead of the learner's m | Safe bidding strategies · Safe strategies with at most m' bid-quantity pairs | richness ratio: \alpha=m/m' | Hurt |
| Allow the clairvoyant m' bid-quantity pairs and strategies that are only RoI-feasible for the bid history | Safe bidding strategies with at most m bid-quantity pairs · RoI-feasible strategies with at most m' bid-quantity pairs | richness ratio: \alpha=m/2m' | Hurt |
| Evaluate safe strategies against RoI-feasible strategies on semi-synthetic EU ETS data | Safe bidding strategies with at most m bid-quantity pairs · EU ETS emission permit auction data, 2022 and 2023 | empirical richness ratio lower bound: 0.95 | Helped |
| Increase the safe-strategy class from 1 to 10 bid-quantity pairs | Safe bidding strategies on semi-synthetic EU ETS data · EU ETS emission permit auction data, 2022 and 2023 | empirical richness ratio: \sim0.8 | Helped |
Surprising findings
- Empirical 1-uniform safe strategies achieve about 0.8 of the optimal 10-pair safe value, far above the worst-case 0.1 bound
- Safe strategies lose at most a factor 2 against the best RoI-feasible strategies with the same number of pairs, independent of m
Limitations
- Worst-case richness ratios can be as small as m/m' for fixed m, implying poor performance against richer classes in pathological instances
- Assumes fixed valuation curve and oblivious adversary in the main model; RoI enforced per round only
- Empirical study uses synthesized bid data reconstructed from aggregate statistics
Experimental setup
Datasets: EU ETS emission permit auction data (2022, 2023, aggregate statistics, semi-synthetic reconstruction)
Benchmarks: EU ETS semi-synthetic auction data
Metrics: regret richness ratio
Baselines: naive Hedge over paths naive EXP3 over paths quasilinear bidding learning algorithms
Builds on: Hedge EXP3 weight-pushing algorithm
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- Weakly Consistent Optimal Pricing Algorithms in Repeated Posted-Price Auctions with Strategic Buyer (ICML 2018 · similarity 0.89)
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- Adaptive Market Making with Inventory Constraints via Online Learning (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.87)
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