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Distributionally Robust Policy Learning under Concept Drifts

ICML 2025 · Reinforcement learning › Policy gradient and actor-critic · approach: Confounding-robust policy evaluation · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Proposes a doubly-robust estimator and a KL-DRO policy learning algorithm for robust offline policy learning when only the conditional outcome distribution shifts (concept drift), with a Hamming-entropy-integral regret bound of order n^{-1/2} and a matching lower bound.

Problem

Offline policy learning that is robust to worst-case distribution shift in the conditional outcome distribution Y|X (concept drift) with covariate distribution fixed, avoiding the over-conservatism of joint-shift DRO methods and handling general covariate spaces.

Approach

Separate the distribution shift into a KL-bounded conditional outcome shift, derive a dual (ERM-form) representation of the worst-case value per covariate, and debias it with a doubly-robust estimator that stays root-n consistent even when nuisance optimizers converge slowly; policy learning maximizes the estimated value over a policy class, with per-action ERM to avoid per-policy nuisance fitting

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use concept-drift robust policy learning rather than the SNLN joint-shift benchmarkPolicy learning on the simulated dataset, δ=0.05 · Simulated datasetrobust policy value: 0.0664±0.003 -> 0.2310±0.001Helped
Use concept-drift robust policy learning rather than the SNLN joint-shift benchmarkPolicy learning on the simulated dataset, δ=0.1 · Simulated datasetrobust policy value: 0.0616±0.004 -> 0.1678±0.002Helped
Use concept-drift robust policy learning rather than the SNLN joint-shift benchmarkPolicy learning on the simulated dataset, δ=0.2 · Simulated datasetrobust policy value: 0.0219±0.003 -> 0.0831±0.002Helped
Use concept-drift robust policy learning rather than the SNLN joint-shift benchmarkPolicy learning under concept drift, worst-case KL-sphere test · Simulated dataset, δ=0.1worst-case policy reward: 0.2020±0.004 -> 0.2167±0.003Helped
Increase the uncertainty radius δAlgorithm LN and SNLN · Simulated datasetrobust policy valueHurt

Limitations

Experimental setup

Datasets: simulated linear-boundary Gaussian reward data French unemployment assistance randomized experiment dataset

Benchmarks: simulated linear boundary dataset French unemployment assistance experiment

Metrics: empirical robust policy value worst-case policy reward on KL-sphere perturbed test sets

Baselines: SNLN

Builds on: SNLN (Si et al. distributionally robust policy learning) double machine learning policytree

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