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Ranked from Within: Ranking Large Multimodal Models Without Labels
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Studies whether pre-trained large multimodal models can be ranked on unlabeled target data using uncertainty scores (token NLL, entropy, sample consistency, ATC) instead of labels, evaluated across 45-47 LMMs and 8-9 VQA benchmarks.
Problem
Ranking pre-trained LMMs for a new target dataset without ground-truth labels; existing benchmark-based rankings are unstable across domains.
Approach
Use the model's own output uncertainty (softmax NLL/entropy over generated tokens, sample-based self-consistency, or ATC thresholds from a proxy labeled set) as a label-free proxy for true performance, finding sequence-level NLL to be the most robust.
Key results
- NLL_max achieves Spearman rho of 0.76 averaged across benchmarks, versus 0.60 for AoL-style benchmark transfer (AoL average rho 0.60 in Table 1 table averages).
- NLL_max reaches rho 0.94 on ChartQA and 0.91 on AI2D, while AoL reaches 0.30 on OCRVQA.
- Labeling 50 target samples gives rho 0.35 on MMMU versus 0.56 for NLL_max.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use NLLmax instead of AoL for label-free model ranking | LMM ranking across benchmarks · Average across eight benchmarks | Spearman's rank correlation (ρ): 0.60 -> 0.76 | Helped |
| Use negative log-likelihood rather than normalized entropy | LMM ranking across benchmarks · Seven of eight benchmarks | ranking correlation | Helped |
| Use the first-token uncertainty score for multiple-choice questions | LMM ranking · MCVQ | ranking correlation | Helped |
| Use the penultimate-token uncertainty score for open-ended answers | LMM ranking · VQA | ranking correlation | Helped |
| Aggregate uncertainty across all generated tokens rather than using a single token | LMM ranking · Across MCVQ and VQA | ranking stability | Helped |
| Use Sample*BERT with the full answer text rather than SampleBERT on single-letter answers | LMM ranking · Four MCVQ benchmarks | Spearman's rank correlation (ρ): 0.66 -> 0.73 | Helped |
| Use stochastic sample-based scores | LMM ranking · VQA compared with MCVQ | ranking correlation | Mixed |
| Use AoL as the sole proxy for a new target domain | LMM ranking · Seven of eight benchmarks | ranking correlation | Hurt |
| Use a different proxy dataset to set the ATC threshold | ATC model ranking · Target domains | correlation with model performance | Mixed |
| Use 50 labeled target-domain samples instead of NLLmax | LLaVA-prismatic ranking · MMMU | Spearman's rank correlation (ρ): 0.56 -> 0.35 | Hurt |
Surprising findings
- Benchmark-to-benchmark rankings of LMMs correlate weakly and inconsistently, so accuracy-on-the-line transfer is unreliable for LMMs.
- Considering all generated tokens can inflate confidence because models append full answer text after the option letter, lowering uncertainty for verbose responses.
Limitations
- Correlations vary by task type; MCVQ rankings are harder, and sample-based methods are weaker on multiple-choice tasks.
- ATC depends strongly on the choice of proxy dataset due to scale differences in uncertainty.
- Entropy normalization is sensitive to vocabulary size differences across models.
Experimental setup
Datasets: ScienceQA AI2D ChartQA OCRVQA TextVQA DocVQA RealWorldQA MMMU GQA
Benchmarks: ScienceQA-IMG AI2D RealWorldQA MMMU GQA ChartQA OCRVQA TextVQA DocVQA
Metrics: Spearman rho weighted Kendall tau_w
Baselines: AoL ATC Sample-BLEU Sample-BERT labeled 50-sample subset
Builds on: accuracy-on-the-line average thresholded confidence semantic entropy BERTScore
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