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Randomized Confidence Bounds for Stochastic Partial Monitoring
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Randomizes the confidence bounds of CBP-based successive-elimination partial monitoring strategies (RandCBP) and proposes CBP* / RandCBP* for contextual partial monitoring, with regret guarantees and a classifier-error-monitoring use case.
Problem
Stochastic partial monitoring: deterministic CBP-based strategies have regret guarantees on easy and hard games but are empirically outperformed by stochastic strategies; existing contextual PM strategies (CBP-side) do not apply to hard games and IDS-based methods scale poorly.
Approach
Replace the deterministic confidence width in CBP's successive elimination criterion with a width scaled by a random variable drawn from a truncated, discretized Gaussian over [A,B] (randomized confidence bounds), preserving regret guarantees since randomized bounds are upper bounded by deterministic ones; extend the contextual CBP-side with pseudo-count exploration (CBP*) to hard games and random
Key results
- RandCBP achieves significantly lower regret (p<0.01) than all baselines in three of four imbalanced/balanced AT and LE settings over T=20k with 96 runs.
- RandCBP* significantly improves over CBP*, STAP, and CESA on contextual AT and LE games (p<0.01).
- In the classifier-monitoring use case, RandCBP-based approach reduces verification cost by 73% relative to explore-commit at tau=0.2 in case 1, with comparable f1-score.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| randomize the confidence bounds in CBP | CBP · Apple Tasting and Label Efficient games, balanced and imbalanced instances | cumulative regret | Helped |
| randomize the confidence bounds in CBP | CBP · Balanced Apple Tasting | cumulative regret: p-value=0.055 | No clear effect |
| randomize the confidence bounds in CBP | CBP · Apple Tasting and Label Efficient contextual games | cumulative regret: p-value<0.01 | Helped |
| use randomized CBP instead of explore-commit | classifier error-rate monitoring, case 1, τ = 0.025 · τ-detection game | number of verifications: 15% | Helped |
| use randomized CBP instead of explore-commit | classifier error-rate monitoring, case 1, τ = 0.2 · τ-detection game | number of verifications: 73% | Helped |
| use randomized CBP instead of explore-commit | classifier error-rate monitoring, case 2, τ = 0.025 · τ-detection game | number of verifications: 18% | Helped |
| use randomized CBP instead of explore-commit | classifier error-rate monitoring, case 2, τ = 0.2 · τ-detection game | number of verifications: 62% | Helped |
| use randomized CBP, CCBP, or explore-commit | classifier error-rate monitoring · τ-detection game, case 1, τ = 0.025 | average F1-score: 0.96±0.15; 0.95±0.16 | No clear effect |
| use randomized CBP, CCBP, or explore-commit | classifier error-rate monitoring · τ-detection game, case 1, τ = 0.2 | average F1-score: 1.0 | No clear effect |
Surprising findings
- In balanced AT, RandCBP is not statistically different from CBP (p=0.055) and TSPM (p=0.854).
Limitations
- Regret bounds are not tight; authors note future work needed for tighter bounds.
- Contextual guarantees for RandCBP* are only proven in the linear setting.
- Game-specific baselines (PGIDS, PGTS, STAP, CESA) are only applicable to specific games.
Experimental setup
Benchmarks: Apple Tasting Label Efficient tau-detection game
Metrics: cumulative regret win-count f1-score number of verifications
Baselines: CBP PM-DMED BPM-Least TSPM TSPM-Gaussian CBP-side IDS-FW PGIDS PGTS STAP CESA Explore-commit
Builds on: CBP CBP-side randomized UCB (Kuang et al.) Thompson sampling
Closest papers by meaning
- Instance-Dependent Regret Bounds for Nonstochastic Linear Partial Monitoring (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.89)
- Analysis and Design of Thompson Sampling for Stochastic Partial Monitoring (NeurIPS 2020 · similarity 0.87)
- The Knowledge Gradient for Sequential Decision Making with Stochastic Binary Feedbacks (ICML 2016 · similarity 0.86)
- Phased Exploration with Greedy Exploitation in Stochastic Combinatorial Partial Monitoring Games (NeurIPS 2016 · similarity 0.86)
- Sample-Efficient Learning of POMDPs with Multiple Observations In Hindsight (ICLR 2024 · similarity 0.85)
- Online Set Learning from Precision and Recall Feedback (NeurIPS 2026 · similarity 0.85)
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