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Statistical Properties of Robust Satisficing
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Develops statistical theory for the Robust Satisficing model: two-sided non-asymptotic confidence intervals for the optimal loss, finite-sample generalization bounds, extensions under distribution shift, and a DRO correspondence showing RS is less sensitive to its hyperparameter.
Problem
Robust Satisficing (RS) models lack statistical guarantees; existing analyses focus on tractable optimization and experiments, and DRO's radius is hard to tune and can be overconservative.
Approach
RS constrains excess expected loss over a reference value tau by a multiple of Wasserstein distance to the empirical distribution, without a restricted ambiguity set; this structure yields two-sided confidence intervals for J* and generalization bounds via a Wasserstein concentration result, avoiding explicit minimax solving and strong duality assumptions required by DRO.
Key results
- Theory gives two-sided confidence interval -L·r_N + τ_ε/(1+ε) ≤ J* ≤ E_P*[h(x̂_N,ξ)] ≤ k_τ·r_N + τ_ε, with fragility bound k_τ ≤ L.
- Generalization bound E[R] ≤ ε·J* + O(L·N^{-min{1/m,1/2}}), extended to distribution shift by adding a linear multiple of the shift distance.
- In synthetic experiments RS beats ERM in small-sample regimes and under distribution shift; DRO's MSE spikes to 0.30 within a 15% range of its optimal radius while RS stays at 0.125.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| use RS instead of ERM in small-sample regimes | linear regression with ℓ1 loss · Sampling distribution, small-sample regimes | MSE | Helped |
| increase tolerance rate ε among RS models | RS · Sampling distribution, small-sample regimes | MSE | Helped |
| use RS instead of ERM as sample size increases | linear regression with ℓ1 loss · Sampling distribution, larger sample sizes | MSE | No clear effect |
| increase tolerance rate ε for stronger robustness control | RS · Distribution shift, Degree less than 2 | MSE | Hurt |
| use RS instead of ERM | linear regression with ℓ1 loss · Distribution shift, Degree less than 2 | MSE | No clear effect |
| use RS instead of ERM | linear regression with ℓ1 loss · Distribution shift, Degree greater than 5 | MSE | Helped |
| vary RS tolerance rate ε within 15% relative error of its optimum rather than DRO radius r | RS compared with DRO · Distribution shift, hyperparameter sensitivity | MSE: 0.30 vs 0.125 | Helped |
| set DRO radius r below 0.24, with the reported optimum around 0.215 | DRO · Distribution shift | MSE: 0.24; 0.215 | Helped |
| set 1+ε below 1.4, with the reported optimum around 1.285 | RS · Distribution shift | MSE: 1.4; 1.285 | Helped |
Surprising findings
- The RS constraint's dual form under Lipschitz losses is equivalent to DRO with radius r(ε), but the mapping is concave, making RS less sensitive to its hyperparameter than DRO.
Limitations
- Confidence and remainder rates suffer the curse of dimensionality (exponent m in r_N).
- Results rely on Lipschitz continuity in ξ and light-tailed distributions; experiments are limited to synthetic linear regression.
- Proof of the fragility bound and remainder terms contain informal steps; generalization bound lacks lower bounds.
Experimental setup
Datasets: synthetic linear regression data (Gaussian features, linear labels with Gaussian noise)
Benchmarks: synthetic linear regression
Metrics: mean squared error on target distribution
Baselines: empirical risk minimization distributionally robust optimization
Builds on: Distributionally Robust Optimization Robust Satisficing Wasserstein concentration of empirical measures
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