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A Fixed-Point Approach for Causal Generative Modeling

ICML 2024 · Probabilistic and scientific modeling › Causal discovery · approach: Counterfactual identification and bounds · 0 citations (OpenAlex)

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Reformulates SCMs as DAG-free fixed-point problems on topologically ordered variables, then combines a zero-shot topological-order predictor (trained by sequentially predicting leaves) with an attention-based fixed-point SCM learner for causal discovery and counterfactual generation.

Problem

Learning structural causal models from observational data is an NP-hard, ill-posed inverse problem because the mechanisms depend on an unknown DAG; existing amortized DAG inference does not guarantee acyclicity and scales quadratically.

Approach

Express SCMs as fixed-point equations on causally ordered variables (no DAG instantiation), prove weak identifiability given the topological order, amortize zero-shot topological-order inference by sequentially predicting graph leaves, and parameterize the fixed-point map with a causal-attention transformer whose attention rows can sum to less than one so it can represent DAGs.

Key results

Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use FiP instead of AVICI for causal discoveryCausal discovery · LIN OUTdirected F1: 0.73 (0.16) -> 0.76 (0.20)Helped
Use FiP instead of AVICI for causal discoveryCausal discovery · RFF OUTdirected F1: 0.74 (0.17) -> 0.81 (0.15)Helped
Use FiP instead of DoWhy - AVICICounterfactual prediction · LIN OUTre-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.20 (0.18) -> 0.13~(0.10)Helped
Use FiP instead of DoWhy - AVICICounterfactual prediction · RFF OUTre-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.16 (0.096) -> 0.13 (0.096)Helped
Use the true graph instead of the true topological orderT_ANM · LIN INre-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.037 / 0.066 (0.057) -> 0.012 / 0.039 (0.060)Helped
Use the true graph instead of the true topological orderT_ANM · LIN OUTre-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.065 / 0.11 (0.084) -> 0.017 / 0.034 (0.048)Helped
Use the true graph instead of the true topological orderT_ANM · RFF INre-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.065 / 0.10 (0.089) -> 0.033 / 0.059 (0.075)Helped
Use the true graph instead of the true topological orderT_ANM · RFF OUTre-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.11 / 0.12 (0.088) -> 0.033 / 0.042 (0.040)Helped
Use the true graph instead of the true topological orderT_ANM · C-Suitere-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.026 / 0.032 (0.030) -> 0.022 / 0.025 (0.022)Helped
Compute d-TOE on a subsampled set of indices during training (ablation)TO inference model M · Synthetic TO inferencetopological ordering scoreNo clear effect

Surprising findings

Experimental setup

Datasets: synthetic SCM datasets (P_IN training) C-Suite SynTReN protein measurements dataset

Benchmarks: LIN OUT RFF OUT C-Suite LIN IN RFF IN

Metrics: topological ordering score directed F1 re-scaled l2 counterfactual error

Baselines: PC GES GOLEM DAG-GNN GraN-DAG DP-DAG DECI AVICI DoWhy

Builds on: DECI AVICI autoregressive flows transformer attention

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