Research map / Probabilistic and scientific modeling / Causal discovery
A Fixed-Point Approach for Causal Generative Modeling
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Reformulates SCMs as DAG-free fixed-point problems on topologically ordered variables, then combines a zero-shot topological-order predictor (trained by sequentially predicting leaves) with an attention-based fixed-point SCM learner for causal discovery and counterfactual generation.
Problem
Learning structural causal models from observational data is an NP-hard, ill-posed inverse problem because the mechanisms depend on an unknown DAG; existing amortized DAG inference does not guarantee acyclicity and scales quadratically.
Approach
Express SCMs as fixed-point equations on causally ordered variables (no DAG instantiation), prove weak identifiability given the topological order, amortize zero-shot topological-order inference by sequentially predicting graph leaves, and parameterize the fixed-point map with a causal-attention transformer whose attention rows can sum to less than one so it can represent DAGs.
Key results
- FiP achieves directed F1 of 0.76 on LIN OUT and 0.81 on RFF OUT, the best among compared methods (AVICI 0.73 and 0.74).
- FiP counterfactual re-scaled l2 error is 0.13 on both LIN OUT and RFF OUT, versus 0.39 for DECI and 0.20/0.16 for DoWhy-AVICI.
- With the true graph, the ANM model achieves counterfactual errors near 0.01-0.03 median, while using true TOs yields up to about 0.12 mean error.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use FiP instead of AVICI for causal discovery | Causal discovery · LIN OUT | directed F1: 0.73 (0.16) -> 0.76 (0.20) | Helped |
| Use FiP instead of AVICI for causal discovery | Causal discovery · RFF OUT | directed F1: 0.74 (0.17) -> 0.81 (0.15) | Helped |
| Use FiP instead of DoWhy - AVICI | Counterfactual prediction · LIN OUT | re-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.20 (0.18) -> 0.13~(0.10) | Helped |
| Use FiP instead of DoWhy - AVICI | Counterfactual prediction · RFF OUT | re-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.16 (0.096) -> 0.13 (0.096) | Helped |
| Use the true graph instead of the true topological order | T_ANM · LIN IN | re-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.037 / 0.066 (0.057) -> 0.012 / 0.039 (0.060) | Helped |
| Use the true graph instead of the true topological order | T_ANM · LIN OUT | re-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.065 / 0.11 (0.084) -> 0.017 / 0.034 (0.048) | Helped |
| Use the true graph instead of the true topological order | T_ANM · RFF IN | re-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.065 / 0.10 (0.089) -> 0.033 / 0.059 (0.075) | Helped |
| Use the true graph instead of the true topological order | T_ANM · RFF OUT | re-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.11 / 0.12 (0.088) -> 0.033 / 0.042 (0.040) | Helped |
| Use the true graph instead of the true topological order | T_ANM · C-Suite | re-scaled ℓ2 error: 0.026 / 0.032 (0.030) -> 0.022 / 0.025 (0.022) | Helped |
| Compute d-TOE on a subsampled set of indices during training (ablation) | TO inference model M · Synthetic TO inference | topological ordering score | No clear effect |
Surprising findings
- Sub-sampling only 10% of the d-TOE loss terms during training yields performance similar to full training, with memory scaling linearly in d_max.
Experimental setup
Datasets: synthetic SCM datasets (P_IN training) C-Suite SynTReN protein measurements dataset
Benchmarks: LIN OUT RFF OUT C-Suite LIN IN RFF IN
Metrics: topological ordering score directed F1 re-scaled l2 counterfactual error
Baselines: PC GES GOLEM DAG-GNN GraN-DAG DP-DAG DECI AVICI DoWhy
Builds on: DECI AVICI autoregressive flows transformer attention
Closest papers by meaning
- Standardizing Structural Causal Models (ICLR 2025 · similarity 0.91)
- Learning Structural Causal Models from Ordering: Identifiable Flow Models (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.90)
- Causal Abstraction Learning based on the Semantic Embedding Principle (ICML 2025 · similarity 0.88)
- Modular Learning of Deep Causal Generative Models for High-dimensional Causal Inference (ICML 2024 · similarity 0.88)
- DCILP: A Distributed Approach for Large-Scale Causal Structure Learning (AAAI 2025 · similarity 0.88)
- Causal learning with the invariance principle (NeurIPS 2026 · similarity 0.88)
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