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The Statistical Scope of Multicalibration

ICML 2023 · Learning theory and algorithms › Prediction and decision losses · approach: Probabilistic calibration

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Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Require the target property Γ to be elicitable (equivalently convex level sets / identifiable) for it to be sensible for calibration and multicalibratablecontinuous scalar distributional properties · theoretical characterization (batch)multicalibratability (sensibility for calibration)Helped
Jointly multicalibrate a non-elicitable property Γ1 (e.g. variance) with an elicitable Γ0 (e.g. mean) using Algorithm 2 instead of multicalibrating Γ1 aloneconditionally elicitable properties (Bayes pairs, mean-moment) · theoretical guarantee (batch)joint multicalibration errorHelped
Apply distortion risk measures (other than means and quantiles) as multicalibration targetsdistortion risk measures · theoretical impossibility on finite-support distributionssensibility for calibrationHurt
Multicalibrate CVaR alone instead of jointly with quantileCVaR (expected shortfall) · theoretical (batch)sensibility for calibrationHurt

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