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Bayesian Uncertainty Estimation for Batch Normalized Deep Networks

ICML 2018 · Probabilistic and scientific modeling › Uncertainty and Gaussian processes · approach: Single-model predictive uncertainty · 167 citations (OpenAlex)

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Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Estimate predictive uncertainty using stochastic BN mini-batches instead of fixed population statisticsBatch-normalized networks · CIFAR10 testPLL: -0.32 -> -0.28Helped
Increase stochastic forward passes from 1 to 128 (ablation)MCBN / ResNet32 · CIFAR10 testPLL: -.36 -> -.28Helped
Increase stochastic forward passes beyond 32 (ablation)MCBN / ResNet32 · CIFAR10 testPLL: -.28 -> -.28No clear effect
Use very small BN batch sizes (≤16) (ablation)MCBN · Regression datasetsuncertainty qualityHurt
Use fewer stochastic passes, such as T=50 (ablation)MCBN · Regression datasetsuncertainty qualityMixed
Use a larger inference mini-batch (ablation)MCBN applied to Bayesian SegNet · PASCAL-VOC vs CamVidqualitative uncertainty qualityHelped
Apply MCBN instead of constant uncertaintyMCBN · Eight regression datasetsnormalized CRPS and normalized PLLHelped
Use MCBN rather than MCDO or MNFApproximate Bayesian uncertainty estimation · Eight regression datasetsnormalized uncertainty qualityMixed

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