Research map / Probabilistic and scientific modeling / Molecules and proteins
Learning from Clinical Judgments: Semi-Markov-Modulated Marked Hawkes Processes for Risk Prognosis
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Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use the semi-Markov-modulated marked Hawkes risk score instead of the Rothman Index | Risk prognosis for hospitalized ward patients · Testing cohort | AUROC: 0.255 -> 0.481; 23% AUROC improvement | Helped |
| Use the semi-Markov-modulated marked Hawkes risk score instead of SW-RF | Risk prognosis for hospitalized ward patients · Testing cohort | AUROC: 0.366 -> 0.481; 11.5% AUROC improvement | Helped |
| Use a semi-Markov state process instead of a standard HMM with Gaussian emissions | Risk prognosis for hospitalized ward patients · Testing cohort | AUROC: 0.321 -> 0.481; 16% AUROC improvement | Helped |
| Include the observation process as informative, state-dependent sampling (ablation) | Proposed model · Cardiac patient episode | hours before cardiac arrest: 10 hours -> 40 hours | Helped |
| Use the proposed risk score to issue ICU alarms | Proposed Score · Testing episodes | alarm lead time: 8 hours | Helped |
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