Research map / Time series / Long-term forecasting
Discrete Graph Structure Learning for Forecasting Multiple Time Series
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Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Learn graph probabilities jointly with the forecaster using a parameterized unilevel objective rather than LDS bilevel optimization | GTS forecasting model · METR-LA | MAE: 2.75 -> 2.64 | Helped |
| Learn graph probabilities jointly with the forecaster using a parameterized unilevel objective rather than LDS bilevel optimization | GTS forecasting model · PEMS-BAY | MAE: 1.33 -> 1.32 | Helped |
| Learn graph probabilities jointly with the forecaster using a parameterized unilevel objective rather than LDS bilevel optimization | GTS forecasting model · PMU | MAE (×10⁻³): 0.49 -> 0.26 | Helped |
| Replace the DCRNN forecaster with T-GCN while retaining GTS graph learning (ablation) | GTS · METR-LA | MAE: 2.64 -> 2.74 | Hurt |
| Replace the DCRNN forecaster with T-GCN while retaining GTS graph learning (ablation) | GTS · PEMS-BAY | MAE: 1.32 -> 1.35 | Hurt |
| Replace the DCRNN forecaster with T-GCN while retaining GTS graph learning (ablation) | GTS · PMU | MAE (×10⁻³): 0.26 -> 0.35 | Hurt |
| Increase graph-prior regularization or use a smaller kNN neighborhood (ablation) | GTS · PMU, 15-minute forecasting | MAE: all around 2.4e-4 | No clear effect |
| Use graph-prior regularization to move the learned graph toward the supplied prior (ablation) | GTS · METR-LA and PEMS-BAY | forecasting quality | Hurt |
| Use the supplied graph directly instead of learning a forecast-oriented structure (ablation) | GTS · METR-LA and PEMS-BAY | forecasting quality | Hurt |
| Use unilevel graph learning instead of LDS bilevel optimization | GTS · METR-LA training | training time: approximately three times | Helped |
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