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LEAD: Exploring Logit Space Evolution for Model Selection
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Proposes LEAD, a transferability metric that models fine-tuning as a logit-space ODE solved in closed form via NTK eigenvalues with class-aware decomposition, to rank pre-trained vision models in one step.
Problem
Efficiently predicting the transferability of pre-trained vision models (model selection) without performing full fine-tuning, by modeling fine-tuning dynamics more faithfully than existing feature-space linear simulations.
Approach
Model the evolution of network output logits (rather than features) with an ODE derived from gradient descent and NTK, giving a closed-form interpolation between initial logits and one-hot labels; use per-class NTK eigenvalues as convergence rates, then score transferability by cross-entropy of predicted final logits.
Key results
- On the supervised model zoo of 12 CNNs, LEAD achieves average weighted Kendall's tau of 0.747, about 18% relatively better than the prior SOTA ETran.
- On the self-supervised model zoo (12 SSL models), LEAD achieves average tau of 0.746, about 15% relatively better than PED (0.648).
- In the low-data regime with N/K=10, LEAD reaches average tau 0.64 on supervised models vs 0.56 for ETran, using under 5% of the data.
Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use LEAD's logit-space evolution modeling instead of PED | transferability ranking · Oxford 102 Flowers (supervised model zoo) | weighted Kendall's τw: +0.335 | Helped |
| Use LEAD's logit-space evolution modeling instead of PED | transferability ranking · Food-101 (supervised model zoo) | weighted Kendall's τw: +0.319 | Helped |
| Use LEAD's logit-space evolution modeling instead of PED | transferability ranking · Oxford-IIIT Pets (supervised model zoo) | weighted Kendall's τw: +0.216 | Helped |
| Increase the evolution time coefficient t within a specific range (ablation) | LEAD · Caltech-101, CIFAR10, and VOC2007 | weighted Kendall's τw | Helped |
| Extend the evolution time coefficient t too far (ablation) | LEAD · Caltech-101, CIFAR10, and VOC2007 | weighted Kendall's τw | Hurt |
| Increase the per-class sample size S used to compute the NTK (ablation) | LEAD · Caltech-101, CIFAR10, and VOC2007 | weighted Kendall's τw | Helped |
Surprising findings
- Simulation-based methods (SFDA, PED) can fail to produce valid rankings with very few samples per class because all models perfectly separate the data, yielding identical scores.
Limitations
- Derivation relies on NTK infinite-width theory; finite-width approximation is via eigenvalues of initial NTK, which is empirical.
- Scope limited to image classification downstream tasks.
- Ground-truth rankings depend on a grid search over learning rates and weight decay.
Experimental setup
Datasets: ImageNet Caltech-101 Stanford Cars CIFAR10 CIFAR100 DTD Oxford 102 Flowers Food-101 Oxford-IIIT Pets SUN397 VOC2007
Benchmarks: Caltech-101 Stanford Cars CIFAR10 CIFAR100 DTD Oxford 102 Flowers Food-101 Oxford-IIIT Pets SUN397 VOC2007
Metrics: weighted Kendall's tau running time logit prediction bias (Euclidean distance)
Baselines: PARC LogME NLEEP PACTran SFDA GBC ETran PED
Builds on: Neural Tangent Kernel SFDA PED LogME PACTran
Closest papers by meaning
- Understanding Overadaptation in Supervised Fine-Tuning: The Role of Ensemble Methods (ICML 2025 · similarity 0.86)
- PROFIT: A Specialized Optimizer for Deep Fine Tuning (NeurIPS 2025 · similarity 0.86)
- Quick-Tune: Quickly Learning Which Pretrained Model to Finetune and How (ICLR 2024 · similarity 0.86)
- Tuning Stable Rank Shrinkage: Aiming at the Overlooked Structural Risk in Fine-tuning (CVPR 2024 · similarity 0.85)
- PACE: Marrying generalization in PArameter-efficient fine-tuning with Consistency rEgularization (NeurIPS 2024 · similarity 0.85)
- Strong Baselines for Parameter-Efficient Few-Shot Fine-Tuning (AAAI 2024 · similarity 0.85)
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