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UNIPoint: Universally Approximating Point Processes Intensities

AAAI 2021 · Time series › Causal and generative time series · approach: Generative temporal point processes · 8 citations (OpenAlex)

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Measured effects reported in the paper

What was changedWhereMeasuredEffect
Use a flexible UNIPoint intensity representation instead of restricted Hawkes or RMTPP formsUNIPoint · MOOC and Redditholdout log-likelihoodHelped
Use a mixture of power-law and ReLU basis functionsUNIPoint · Across evaluated datasetsholdout log-likelihoodHelped
Increase the number of basis functions (ablation)PLSum · MOOCholdout log-likelihoodHelped
Replace the standard RNN with an LSTM (ablation)PLSum · MOOCholdout log-likelihood: 4.939 ± .085 → 4.934 ± .086Hurt
Replace the standard RNN with an LSTM (ablation)PLSum · Redditholdout log-likelihood: 0.162 ± .046 → 0.212 ± .048Helped
Replace the standard RNN with an LSTM (ablation)PLSum · StackOverflowholdout log-likelihood: -0.814 ± .023 → -0.791 ± .023Helped
Replace softplus with max(sigmoid(x), x) (ablation)UNIPoint · Real-world datasets, across basis variantsholdout log-likelihoodMixed
Replace softplus with max(sigmoid(x), x) (ablation)CosSum · MOOC, Reddit, and StackOverflowholdout log-likelihood: 4.471 ± .075 → 3.353 ± .153; 0.139 ± .044 → 0.151 ± .045; -0.814 ± .023 → -0.814 ± .022Hurt
Use one Monte Carlo integration sample instead of 256 (ablation)ReLUSum · MOOCholdout log-likelihood difference: 0.005 ± 0.019 vs -No clear effect

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