Research map / Time series / Long-term forecasting
Uncertainty Propagation in Long-Term Structured Regression on Evolving Networks
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Measured effects reported in the paper
| What was changed | Where | Measured | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| add graph structure (extended GCRF) to a linear unstructured predictor | iterative linear regression · Disease admission and mortality, 48 months ahead | MSE (multi-step) | Helped |
| extended GCRF with linear predictor vs nonlinear iterative GP | IGP · Disease admission and mortality, single step | MSE (one step) | No clear effect |
| extended GCRF vs nonlinear iterative GP | IGP · Disease admission and mortality, 48 months ahead | MSE (multi-step) | Helped |
| extended GCRF vs ILR and IGP | ILR and IGP · Precipitation, 96 months ahead | MSE | Helped |
| propagate input uncertainty into predictive variance via second-order Taylor correction | GCRF · Septicemia admission, 48 months | uncertainty tracks prediction error | Helped |
| propagate input uncertainty (GCRF) vs IGP self-estimated confidence | IGP · Precipitation, 96 months | uncertainty propagation | Helped |
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